Q2 India realization decline of ₹3,100/ton
Net realizations in India expected to drop by about ₹3,100 per ton quarter-on-quarter due to falling international prices and seasonality.
TATASTEEL / guidance tracker
Keep management guidance in view.
Tata Steel · forward-looking guidance across the available source record.
Research layer active
Guidance tracker
What management said would happen.
revenue
Q2 Europe realization decline of GBP 38/ton
Net realizations in Europe expected to drop by about GBP 38 per ton quarter-on-quarter.
Netherlands EBITDA positive in H2 FY24
Management expects Netherlands business to be EBITDA positive in the second half of FY24, with full-year positive EBITDA.
Net debt/EBITDA target of 2.5x by year-end
Management aims to bring net debt/EBITDA back to 2.5x by end of FY24, from 2.9x in Q1.
India volume guidance of 1.4 million tons incremental for FY25
Full-year incremental volume from Kalinganagar expansion is guided at 1.4 million tons, as G Blast Furnace relining in Q4 offsets some gains.
UK EBITDA to break even from Q3 FY25
Management expects UK operations to reach close to breakeven or slightly positive EBITDA from Q3 FY25, after closure of second blast furnace in September.
India net realizations expected INR 1,500/ton lower in Q2
Net realizations in India are expected to be about INR 1,500 per ton lower in Q2 compared to Q1, due to soft steel prices.
Netherlands net realizations expected GBP 60/ton lower in Q2
Netherlands net realizations are projected to be GBP 60 per ton lower in Q2 compared to Q1, reflecting market weakness.
India net realizations expected ~INR 2,000/ton lower in Q2
Management guided that net realizations in India will decline by about INR 2,000 per ton sequentially in Q2 FY26 due to seasonal weakness and supply pressures.
Coking coal costs expected $10/ton lower in Q2
Coking coal consumption costs are expected to decline by about $10 per ton across geographies in Q2 FY26.
UK EBITDA breakeven target by Q4 FY26
Management reiterated the goal of achieving EBITDA breakeven in the UK business by the fourth quarter of FY26, subject to market conditions and cost actions.
Net debt reduction of INR 60-80 billion in FY26
The company aims to reduce net debt by INR 60-80 billion during FY26, though capex priorities may influence timing.
India net realizations expected up INR 2,200/ton QoQ in Q3
Management guided a sequential improvement of INR 2,200 per ton in India net realizations in Q3 FY24, aided by resilient domestic demand.
Netherlands EBITDA positive from Q4 FY24
After blast furnace relining completion in Q3, Netherlands is expected to turn EBITDA positive in Q4 FY24.
UK transition to be cash neutral during transition period
Management aims to run the UK business in transition such that it is cash neutral or cash positive, excluding one-time restructuring costs.
India capacity target of 40 million tons by FY30
Tata Steel plans to reach 40 million tons of India capacity by 2030 through expansions at Kalinganagar, Neelachal, Bhushan, and EAF projects.
India net realizations expected INR 2,000/ton lower in Q3 vs Q2
Net realizations in India are expected to decline by about INR 2,000 per ton in Q3 compared to Q2, due to lower July prices and auto contract adjustments.
UK EBITDA breakeven target by June 2025
Management targets achieving neutral to positive EBITDA in the UK by June 2025, driven by fixed cost reductions of GBP 100 per ton.
Kalinganagar blast furnace to reach 15,000 tons/day by Q4 FY25
The new blast furnace at Kalinganagar is expected to ramp up to 15,000 tons per day by the fourth quarter of FY25.
FY26 CapEx to be significantly lower than FY25
Capital expenditure in FY26 is expected to decline substantially as Kalinganagar Phase 2 completes, with no major new projects starting.
India Q3 realization decline of INR 1,500/ton QoQ
Management expects net realizations in India to drop by about INR 1,500 per ton in Q3 compared to Q2, assuming no major price increase in December.
India Q3 volume increase of 500,000 tons QoQ
India volumes are expected to be higher by about 500,000 tons in Q3 due to Kalinganagar ramp-up.
UK EBITDA break-even unlikely in Q4 FY26 without government action
Management stated that achieving EBITDA break-even in UK by Q4 is difficult without policy intervention on import quotas.
Netherlands Q4 improvement expected from EU Steel Plan
Positive impact from EU protectionist measures expected from Q4 onwards, with better price discussions for annual contracts.
India realizations expected ~INR 1,000 lower QoQ in Q4
Management guided for a sequential decline in net realizations in India for Q4 FY24.
Coking coal consumption cost ~$10 higher QoQ in Q4
Coking coal cost on consumption basis expected to increase by about $10 per ton in Q4.
UK losses to be halved in FY25 vs FY24
Management expects to significantly reduce UK losses next year, targeting a 50% reduction.
Netherlands to be EBITDA positive in FY25
Management expects Netherlands operations to turn EBITDA positive next financial year.
India NSR flat QoQ in Q4
Management expects India net sales realizations to be flat quarter-on-quarter in Q4 FY25, barring any immediate safeguard duty changes.
UK breakeven by Q2 FY26
Tata Steel UK targets breakeven in the first two quarters of FY26, with a focus on achieving it by June 2025.
Netherlands transformation cost takeout of EUR 200 million
A multi-year transformation program in the Netherlands targets EUR 200 million in cost savings, with benefits starting from Q1 FY26.
Kalinganagar Phase 2 capex completion by September 2026
The remaining INR 2,000 crore capex for Kalinganagar Phase 2 will be spent over the next year, with full benefits expected by September 2026.
Q4 India realizations expected to improve by ~₹2,300/ton QoQ
Management guided a sequential increase in India steel realizations of about ₹2,300 per ton in Q4 FY26, driven by spot price recovery and better mix.
Q4 India volumes expected to be ~500,000 tons higher QoQ
India volumes are expected to increase by about 500,000 tons in Q4 compared to Q3, aided by no blast furnace relinings and new Ludhiana plant startup.
Netherlands EBITDA expected to expand in Q4 despite mix headwinds
Despite a ~€33/ton QoQ realization decline from mix effects, cost takeouts are expected to more than offset, leading to EBITDA expansion in Q4.
UK EBITDA to improve slightly in Q4, but positive only with policy support
UK EBITDA is expected to see a slight improvement in Q4, but turning positive requires UK government safeguard measures and a ~£100/ton spread expansion.
India volume growth of 1.4 million tons in FY25
Consolidated volume guidance of 1.4 million tons increase, driven by Kalinganagar expansion (1.7 million tons) offset by Jamshedpur BF reline.
Capex of INR 16,000 crore in FY25
Total capex guidance of INR 16,000 crore, with 75% allocated to India for Kalinganagar expansion and downstream projects.
UK cash breakeven by H2 FY25
UK operations expected to be cash neutral in the second half of FY25, with full-year EBITDA positive in FY26.
Net debt/EBITDA below 2.5x by FY25 end
Management targets net debt to EBITDA ratio below 2.5x by end of FY25, assuming market conditions remain at cycle bottom.
Q1 FY26 India steel prices INR 3,000/ton higher QoQ
Management expects Indian steel realizations to increase by about INR 3,000 per ton in the first quarter of FY26 compared to Q4 FY25.
FY26 cost savings target of INR 11,500 crore
Company targets structural cost takeouts of approximately INR 11,500 crore across geographies in FY26, including INR 4,000 crore in India, EUR 500 million in Netherlands, and GBP 220 million in U.K.
FY26 volume growth of ~1.5 million tons
Additional deliveries of roughly 1.5 million tons expected in FY26, primarily from India, with Kalinganagar ramping up and Ludhiana EAF commissioning by year-end.
FY26 capex of INR 15,000 crore
Capital expenditure planned at about INR 15,000 crore, with ~75% allocated to India projects including Kalinganagar completion and Ludhiana EAF.