Suyog Telematics · risk themes across the available quarters.
Bear-case history
Management has consistently missed tower/tenency targets for multiple quarters. Previous FY26 guidance of 9,000 tenencies now revised to 7,000-7,500, with FY27 'doubling' target delayed again. Historical pattern suggests elevated execution risk.
Despite capping BSNL exposure, 558 sites remain unbilled due to integration delays. Government PSU processes remain unpredictable, creating receivable uncertainty even with capped exposure.
Management acknowledged investor concerns about Starlink and LEO satellites potentially disrupting tower demand. While dismissing immediate threat, this represents a long-term technological disruption risk to the tower business model.
Promoter used preferential warrants conversion (with share discount) while stock declined 75%. Combined with guidance misses, this creates misalignment concerns and potential further dilution needs for capex.