FY27 cement volume growth revised to 8-9%
Down from earlier estimate of 11-12% due to prolonged monsoon, Assam floods impacting Q1 and Q2, and overall weak demand environment in SAM. Double-digit growth expected only from Q3-Q4.
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Star Cement · forward-looking guidance across the available source record.
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Fuel cost to decline to ₹1.45 in Q2
Expect improved FSA (fuel supply agreement) coal allocation as power plant demand normalizes; further reduction to ₹1.35-1.40 targeted for Q3-Q4.
Rajasthan plant commissioning: Q1 FY29
Environmental clearance expected October 2026; ground construction to begin November 2026 with 22-26 month timeline. Total capex ₹2,700-2,900 crore including GST.
Cement price stability at ₹1,500+ per bag
Prices broadly flat QoQ in NE and Bihar; price increase contingent on demand recovery post-monsoon in Q3-Q4. Bihar prices Rs.10/bag higher than NE.
FY26 Volume Guidance: ~5.3 Million Tonnes
Full year cement volume guidance maintained at 5.3 million tonnes with Q4 expected to grow 8-10% YoY, implying broadly flat volumes in Q4 vs prior year on higher base.
Total Capex Plan: 4,800 Crore over FY27-FY29
Four projects (Bihar GU 2MT, Nimbol Rajasthan 3MT clinker + 3MT grinding, Haryana 2MT grinding, Umrango 3MT clinker) totaling 4,800 crore with commissioning targeted for FY29.
Equipment Orders by Q3 FY27
Machinery orders for Rajasthan expansion to be placed by Q3 FY27, with groundbreaking targeted for September-October 2026 after EC approval.
Sustainable EBITDA/ton: 1,300-1,500 Rupees
Long-term EBITDA per ton guidance of 1,300-1,500 rupees for Star Cement as a whole confirmed; North India operations expected to initially earn ~1,000 rupees/ton, improving with legacy mines.
FY27 Volume Growth: 10-12%
Targeting 10-12% cement volume growth in FY27 based on current demand visibility, up from 5.3 million tons achieved in FY26. Clinker sales expected to remain flat at ~3.5 lakh tons.
EBITDA/ton: 1,500-1,700 range for next 3 years
Management expects to maintain EBITDA per ton in the 1,500-1,700 range for the next three years until Rajasthan project comes online, with eventual normalization to 1,300-1,400 post-ramp-up.
FY27 Capex: 600-700 crore
Capital expenditure for FY27 estimated at 600-700 crore as the company begins land acquisition and approvals for grinding units in Nimbahera, Harya, and Bihar, with land acquisition expected to complete by October.
Subsidy/Incentive FY27: 140-150 crore
Overall subsidies in FY27 expected to reduce by 40-50 crore compared to FY26's 184 crore, bringing the estimate to approximately 140-150 crore due to GST rate reductions.