SOBHA / guidance tracker

Keep management guidance in view.

Sobha · forward-looking guidance across the available source record.

Research layer active

Guidance tracker

What management said would happen.

FY25 Sales Target: ₹8,500 Crores

Management reiterated its sales target of at least ₹8,500 crore for FY25, driven by diverse inventory across locations and strong upcoming launch pipeline.

revenue

FY25 Launch Target: 9 Million sq ft

Company targets 9 million sq ft of launches for the full year, with 3 million already launched in Q1 and remaining 6 million planned for Q2-Q4. Upside potential exists based on execution confidence.

expansion

Margin Recovery to 30%+ EBITDA

Project-level EBITDA margins expected to exceed 30% from sales executed in FY23-25. Current 12.7% margin reflects legacy cost overruns and fixed cost absorption; recovery should begin from Q2 with steady improvement into FY26.

margins

Net Debt Near-Zero Post-Rights Issue

Post ₹2,000 crore rights issue completion, net debt expected to reduce to ~₹300 crore from current ~₹1,200 crore, providing firepower for new market entry and land acquisition.

growth

FY26 Pre-sales Growth Target

Management targets 30% increase in pre-sales over FY25 levels, expecting to significantly exceed last year's performance through new launches and sustained demand across markets.

growth

Q2 Launch Value

At least one new project launch expected in Q2 FY26, valued at approximately INR 950 crores, with launches in Bangalore and Gurgaon planned.

expansion

H2 Launch Concentratio

Majority of the ~8 million sq ft pipeline launches are skewed towards end of Q3 or beginning of Q4, including projects in Gurgaon and Greater Noida.

expansion

OC Recovery

Expected receipt of OCs for five Bangalore projects in subsequent quarters, enabling recognition of approximately INR 650 crore revenue and INR 150 crore PBT that was deferred in Q1.

revenue

30%+ Pre-Sales Growth Target for FY27

Management guided for at least 30% growth in pre-sales for FY27, potentially higher if all planned launches (8.2 million sq ft) execute on schedule within the next 9 months.

growth

Q4 FY27 Margin to Reach 17-20%

Margins currently ~9.7% are expected to improve significantly by Q4 FY27 as high-margin projects complete and handover. Sequential improvement expected from Q3 onwards.

margins

FY27 Land Investment: Rs 1,500-1,600 Crore

Land payments expected at Rs 1,500-1,600 crore for FY27 (vs Rs 1,160 crore last year), including Rs 370 crore already invested in Q1. New opportunities being pursued in Bangalore, NCR, and Mumbai.

expansion

FY25 Sales Target: INR 8,500 Crore

Management maintained guidance but caveated that achievement depends on timing of H2 launches in the next five months. Clearer picture expected in two months as launches materialize.

growth

FY26 Launch Target: 10 Million sq ft

From the existing pipeline of 19.29 million sq ft, combined with 5.5 million sq ft expected in H2 FY25, management targets 10 million sq ft of launches in FY26 across Bengaluru and other cities.

expansion

EBITDA Margin Target: Over 20% (Medium-Long Term)

Management targets overall company EBITDA margins exceeding 20%, with real estate segment margins in the 22-25% range. Contracts and manufacturing margins expected to improve from current ~6% as older civil and glazing projects complete.

margins

H2 FY25 Launches: 5.5 Million sq ft

Q3 expected to see 3.5 million sq ft (Townpark), 1.1 million sq ft (RERA approved), and 0.7 million sq ft project launch. Q4 includes sustenance launches and Pune/Noida projects pending approvals.

expansion

FY2026 Sales Target: INR 8,500 crore

Management reiterated guidance of approximately INR 8,500 crore for FY2026, representing ~33% growth over FY2025's INR 6,400 crore, contingent on H2 launch momentum materializing across geographies.

sales

H2 Launch Plan: 8-9 million sq ft across 7-8 projects

Second half launches include Sobha Magnus (launching this week in South Bangalore), three NCR projects (~3.5 million sq ft total), Greater Noida project, and Mumbai market entry with first phase launch imminent.

expansion

Project-Level EBITDA Margins to Reach ~30%

Management expects margins to improve from current ~20%+ gross margins toward 30% from next financial year, driven by completion of higher-margin projects like Neopolis and improved project mix as legacy low-margin projects phase out.

margins

FY2026 Completion Target: 5.5 million sq ft

Company completed 2.25 million sq ft in H1 and targets at least 5.5 million sq ft for full FY2026, with improved profitability expected to reflect as volume of project completions increases.

growth

FY25 Pre-Sales Target Reduced

Management acknowledged inability to achieve INR 8,500 crore guidance; now targets reaching last year's sales value with potential upside from new Bangalore launches.

sales

Q4 Margin Recovery

One-time contractual losses from de-scoped projects are largely complete. Margins expected to improve from Q4 FY25 with full shift to higher-margin real estate recognition.

margins

9 Million Sq Ft Launches Target

Company maintains full-year launch target of 9M sq ft across 6 projects in 4 cities. Town Park (3.67M sq ft) received RERA post quarter-end.

expansion

FY30 PBT Margin Guidance of 15-18%

On INR 15,000 crore unrecognized revenue, CFO stated consolidated PBT (after corporate overhead and interest) will be in 15-18% range by FY30.

margins

FY2026 Annual Sales Target: INR 8,500 crores

Targeting 35% YoY growth, partially dependent on Q4 launches (planned 8.5 million sq ft cumulative for FY26 vs 2.58 million sq ft in 9M).

revenue

Q4 Planned Launches: 4 projects across 5.5 million sq ft

Gurgaon (800k sq ft), Greater Noida (2.4 million sq ft), Chennai (1.5 million sq ft), Calicut (800k sq ft) — all in advanced RERA approval stages targeting mid-March launches.

expansion

Hoskote Project Launch in Q1 FY27

5.4 million sq ft project on 48 acres in Bangalore, with ~30% of inventory planned for initial launch phase. First phase visibility within first quarter of next financial year.

expansion

Margin Expansion Trajectory

Q4 should see significant improvement due to deferred revenue recognition. Near-term margins (12-15 months) expected at 18-19%, improving to 34% for projects completing beyond 15 months as completions ramp up.

margins

Sales Target: INR 10,000 crore (5-digit) for FY26

Management targets at least 30-35% growth over FY25 sales of INR 6,277 crore, with achievement dependent on timely launch execution in Q1-Q2 across 14 cities.

revenue

FY26 Project Completions: 5.5 million sq ft (+20% YoY)

From 4.54 million sq ft completed in FY25, the company expects to ramp up construction significantly, which will drive revenue recognition acceleration.

growth

Project-Level EBITDA Margin: 33% on Unrecognized Revenue

INR 15,873 crore of balance revenue (Sobha's share) from already sold units has embedded project-level EBITDA margin of 33%, rising toward 40% for new sales as low-margin legacy projects phase out.

margins

FY26 Launch Plan: ~9 million sq ft across Cities

40%+ in NCR (Greater Noida + Gurugram), 15% in Bangalore, 10% in Chennai, 5% in Mumbai; Q1-Q2 launches targeted at 3-3.5 million sq ft (~INR 5,000-6,000 crore value).

expansion

Pre-sales growth of ~30% in FY27

Management expects similar growth rate as FY26, with 45-50% from sustenance and 50-55% from new launches.

growth

Launch ~10 million sq ft in FY27

Planned launches include Hoskote phase 1 (5.3 msf), Gurgaon Crescent, and projects in Kerala, Bangalore, Pune, Chennai.

expansion

EBITDA margin improvement to 24-26% in H2 FY27

Higher-margin projects nearing completion will drive margin expansion in Q3/Q4 FY27.

margins

Net operating cash flow target of ₹2,000 Cr in FY27

Aiming to generate ₹2,000 crore from operations, up from ₹1,637 crore in FY26.

other