Q1-FY24 · Neeraj Akhoury
Pricing and volumes both need to be balanced very well. It is wrong to say price over volume or volume over price. Volumes for the sake of volumes, we should not sacrifice prices, and that's what we continue to follow.
SHREE CEMENT · tone and specificity signals across the available quarters.
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Pricing and volumes both need to be balanced very well. It is wrong to say price over volume or volume over price. Volumes for the sake of volumes, we should not sacrifice prices, and that's what we continue to follow.
We should be very close to a 68 million ton capacity at an India level... We are very much on track to reach our ambitious goals of taking our capacity beyond 80 million tons in the coming years.
We are happy to share that during the last quarter, we successfully commissioned the trial production of our clinker unit at Purulia... total cement capacity has reached almost 50 million tons for 9.9 million sites.
Cash is real, rest is myth. Please be very careful while making any analysis based on net profit numbers.
Q2 for sure is not going to be good for the industry... Even if all the tenders get floated by end September or early October, I don't think major changes will happen in demand scenario in Q3 as well.
The guys who are the contenders for such consolidations would like to keep the prices of cement depressed to have a better bargain. This is one of the major factors why the prices are not being increased.
Our volumes will grow very gradually, but our prices and premiumization is at the level at which we wanted. Premiumization for the sake of premiumization by investing more, giving a better higher cost material with lower realization, lower EBITDA is not the idea.
We are already 58% renewable power, and it will come to 62%, 63% in the coming six- to eight-month period. Is it not a big cost advantage? Which company has even 50%. We talk of not marginally lower, I am talking of 30% renewable power, and we have 58% renewable power. That is quite a big advantage.
Last year, same quarter, power sale was INR 46 crore, and this year it is INR 343 crore. So INR 300 crore increase in power sale, means around INR 250 crore increase in the coal and power, power and fuel cost. This is the reason when we are talking of the totality.
Please don't look at net profit of Shree. Look at cash profit of Shree. By doing such accelerated depreciation, I am at a faster rate changing the nature of my non-fungible fixed assets to fungible cash assets.
Whichever sale mix really gives you the best result, you will move to that. So what is the strategy? The strategy is to maximize profits come what may.
We have made strong progress with green power comprising about 54.8% of our total power use, which is the highest in the cement industry.
There is no change in the strategy. This is what we would like to keep reinforcing, so it is value over volume. Having said that, and you have seen that in the results when we say 9% realization growth over last year, you should compare it with the industry numbers, and I'm sure you will find that we have not done badly.
This is a trick question. We have said that we will be growing marginally better than the industry. Now which region, what region, what kind of growth? How do you all forecast this? We have to be prepared. We are having sufficient physical resources to set up capacity in most of the areas where we operate, and we'll take a call as the demand scenario becomes more clear.
We have said we have done 1,100. Mr. Akhoury has clearly said that he does not expect... He expects some demand vibrancy. He expects stable to a stable pricing scenario. At first we will do 1,100. At best we can do 1,200. I don't know that. I am not saying everything. Maybe we can do 1,300 as well. You will have to have patience, my dear friend. People have been claiming all kinds of EBITDA, never delivered. We don't promise anything. We deliver and then we say.
This was a quarter where we fired all cylinders, volumes was up, realization was up, and cost was down. Sales have increased from about 8 million tons in December 2022 to about 8.9 million tons in December 2023. We are achieving a growth rate of roughly about 11%.
If the pet coke prices have come down, our procurement prices in future will also come down. However, as I explained, the consumption is based on weighted, weighted average cost of inventory. So my inventory in last quarter was at about INR 1.76 or INR 1.77, and based on the inventory which we have and the pipeline we have, it remains the same for this quarter. Next quarter it will come down.
We have never given any price guidance because price is not in the control of any manufacturer. We have always given cost guidance. I have already stated that my cost should tend to be lower because of the factors explained on fuel and other things. Now it is your call completely as an equity analyst or a cement industry analyst, to take a call on where the prices will go.
Please understand that since October 2024, I had been maintaining that we will be concentrating on value over volumes... If you will notice, by restraining our volumes, we have narrowed the gap from about INR 30 a bag to about INR 15 a bag.
It is very difficult for me because much depends on how the demand scenario emerges. But certainly, all my RMC plants will be using my cement, and it will aid the cement quantity and capacity utilization.
Ideally, we should reach 70% kind of a capacity utilization. Now, whether it takes place in one year or in one and a half years, time can only tell.
By 2028, we intend to have rail connectivity at all our sites. The differential is around 10% to 12% between rail and road on a per ton per kilometer basis.
We have 3.6 crore equity shares outstanding, and we are sitting at a capacity of 56 million tons. In pro forma this means that for every share we have created, 15 tons of capacity. By 2028, every share will lead to 20 tons of capacity.
Since 1985 till March 2024, the internal rate of return generated by Shree Cement for its shareholders is north of 24%. We are exactly at 24.44%. This has been possible because of a very astute capital allocation strategy and also our penchant to keep debt-free to protect the sanctity of equity.
Our strategy is not to be the biggest volume player in the industry, but be the most profitable player in the industry. We do not distribute revenue; we distribute profits.
You cannot, in a supply-overhang scenario, enjoy the cake and have it too. You have to play an equilibrium between volumes and prices. We have told you we have never aspired to be the number one cement seller in the country. We aspire to be the most profitable cement company in the country.
We are creating an option at 2% [delta between treasury returns and inflation] for additional capacity because if we get two quarters like January-March, all these option costs are taken care of.
Q2 and Q3 of last financial year, we suffered to pull up our prices. We did not aggressively sell. Once the prices have established to a level where the delta between the top players and us has reduced significantly, we don't intend to give up that advantage. We would like to have now our fair and proper market share. Profitability is the prime focus.
As Mr. Akhoury has already informed you, we are pursuing three distinct places. One is we will be increasing our RMC plants during 2026, 2027. Number two, we are aggressively working on railway sidings. Number three, the Meghalaya expansion, for which orders have already been placed.
We have moved to a more stable pricing platform, narrowing the gap between the topmost player and us by almost INR 20 a bag, and now we will be chasing volumes. We have delivered on both these accounts, which explains our ethos of delivery and not proclamation.