SG Mart · forward-looking guidance across the available source record.
Guidance tracker
Management explicitly admitted the ₹200 crore EBITDA target set earlier is unlikely to be met due to Q2 underperformance and Q3 continuing to face headwinds from branding expense amortization and October steel price decline.
Management stated Q4 FY26 will demonstrate the 'true colors' of the business model once branding expenses are fully expensed, profiling business scales to 2,000-3,000/ton EBITDA, and service centers reach full utilization.
Jaipur center to start in Q4 FY26; 2 additional leased centers operational. Management aims to expand pan-India with geographic diversification to East and South India, targeting Rajasthan and other underserved markets.
Despite near-term margin pressure, management reaffirms the ROCE target as higher-margin businesses (service centers, renewable structures) scale, though acknowledges they will require slightly higher working capital.
Management projects 50% sequential increase from Rs 40 crore underlying EBITDA in Q3, driven by margin normalization (IITDA returning to Rs 2,000/tonne in service centers, Rs 900-1,000/tonne in B2B) and volume growth in renewable structures to 25,000 tonnes.
Full year guidance of Rs 350 crore represents 150% growth over estimated FY26 Rs 140 crore. Breakdown: Rs 200 crore from service centers (750,000 tonnes at Rs 2,000 IITDA + Dubai Rs 50 crore), Rs 50 crore from B2B, Rs 100-150 crore from structures.
Full year FY26 EBITDA guidance of Rs 140 crore versus Rs 103 crore in FY25, implying approximately 35-40% growth despite Q3 weakness. This will be validated in Q4 results.
Land acquisition underway for 10 additional locations beyond the 5 new ones planned for FY27. Management targets all 20 operational by end of FY28/FY29, with 8,000-9,000 tonnes monthly volume per center at Rs 2,000 IITDA.
Management reiterated prior guidance targeting ₹300-350 crore annualized EBITDA for FY27, barring further escalation in Middle East conflict impacting B2B steel supply or Dubai operations. Quarterly EBITDA of ₹50 crore is positioned as the new floor.
Service centers to scale to 20 units doing 2 million tonnes annually; renewable structures to 300,000 tonnes; profile business to 300,000 tonnes. B2B volume guidance declined due to supply unpredictability. Every quarter expected to show sequential improvement from Q4 base.
Board has approved ₹600 crore minimum capex over two years: ~50% for service center construction (3-4 new centers plus land), ~30% for land parcel acquisition, ~15-20% for profile machines. Additional lines for renewable and profile capacity may increase outlay.
Relocation of Ahmedabad and Indore centers from rental premises to owned land, plus new greenfield in Kolkata. Active land scouting in Hyderabad, Chennai, and Punjab—land acquisitions expected in next 2-3 months.