Scoda Tubes · risk themes across the available quarters.
Bear-case history
PNG gas supply from Qatar was disrupted for 15-17 days in March due to geopolitical situation (war), causing 40% production impact and ~₹16-17 crores revenue loss. Gas prices remain elevated (+25%) with partial pass-through lag.
Stainless steel round bar prices increased 25-30% due to geopolitical factors affecting scrap imports. Pass-through to customers is contractually built in but creates revenue timing mismatches.
Power sector tender participation expected to be delayed from November-December to July-August, creating visibility gap for large order wins that could significantly boost domestic revenue growth.
Inventory days at 217 vs. 160-170 target; finance costs increased due to higher working capital utilization and delayed receivables from supply chain disruptions affecting payment cycles.