Samhi Hotels · risk themes across the available quarters.
Bear-case history
The GST regulatory change removing ITC on rooms priced below Rs 7,500 created a 6.7 crore EBITDA headwind in Q3 and will impact margins by 150-200bps for next 1-2 quarters. Pass-through to customers is already happening via daily pricing, but reported margins will take time to normalize.
December saw a 3-week wipeout (vs typical 10-day expectation) due to the largest Indian airline's operational challenges. This disrupted upscale segment particularly with group/MICE cancellations and caused ~10% slip in incremental flowthrough (45% vs expected 55-60%).
Analyst raised concerns about design-stage status of planned greenfield projects and ability to execute within 2-2.5 year timelines. Management clarified W Hyderabad has on-site work underway and Western Bangalore has completed demolition/site leveling, but Financial District Hyderabad and Navi Mumbai remain in design phase.
Management acknowledged 1-2 hotels where recycling opportunities exist, but no definitive agreements or decisions have been made. Previously guided 135 crore asset recycling pending execution remains unresolved with 12-18 month timeline mentioned.