SAIL Q3 FY26 earnings call.
A source-linked concall view: reported numbers, management language, guidance, commitments and risks that should carry forward.
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Revenue
₹27,371 Cr
verified against source
Revenue YoY
9%
reported change
EBITDA
Pending
latest reported figure
Source
screener in
record provenance
Actual signal trajectory
Where this quarter sits.
Quarter read
What the record says.
SAIL delivered a solid Q3 FY26 with robust volume growth of 16.3% YoY in 9M, driven by aggressive retail outreach and inventory liquidation. Revenue rose 9% YoY to ₹79,997 crore in 9M, while PAT surged 60%, reflecting operational efficiency and cost optimization—borrowings were reduced by ~₹5,000 crore in 9M with another ~₹2,000 crore reduction in January alone. Crude steel production grew 2% to 14.35 million tons. Domestic steel prices have stabilized since mid-December, with realizations increasing ₹2,000-3,500/ton in January for both flat and long products, expected to reflect more fully in February. However, coking coal costs are rising—January averaged ₹18,500/ton with February expected at ₹19,700, creating margin pressure. The ISP expansion (₹36,000 crore) is on track with completion targeted for FY30. Management guides for 22.5 million tons hot metal in FY27 and expects Q4 to outperform Q3. Key risks include coal price volatility, competitive cost disadvantages, and wage revisions from FY28.
Colored figures show movement against the previous available record.
Guidance to track
- Management projects 22.5M tons hot metal and ~21M tons crude steel in FY27, up from FY26's expected 20.5-21M tons. FY28 is guided at 23M tons hot metal and 21.5M tons sales.
- FY26 capex revised upward from initial ₹7,500 crore guidance to ₹7,500-10,000 crore range. FY27 capex will significantly increase to ₹15,000 crore, driven by ISP expansion payments.
- Management expects Q4 FY26 sales volumes to exceed Q3's 5.15M tons, driven by all five ISPs operating at full capacity and continued inventory reduction.
- Current EBITDA/ton is ~₹6,000-7,000. Management expects this to improve beyond ₹10,000/ton once the ISP modernization project (₹36,000 crore, completion FY30) comes onstream.
Risks flagged
- Coking coal costs increased from Q3 average of ₹18,350/ton to ₹18,500 in January and expected ₹19,700 in February (+₹1,200) and another ₹1,000 in March. Spot prices at $251/ton (vs ~$184 Q3 average) will create cost headwinds despite price increases.
- Analyst questioned the sizable cost disadvantage versus peers. Management acknowledged the gap but did not quantify the expected narrowing timeline beyond ISP expansion benefits (FY30). Current EBITDA/ton of ₹6,000-7,000 vs industry benchmarks remains a concern.
- Analyst directly questioned the profitability of the NSL trading arrangement (1M tons in 9M). Management gave evasive answers, stating 'margins are small' and 'the delta we can't exactly say.' Actual contribution to SAIL's profitability remains unclear.
- Employee wage revision will be effective from January 1, 2027, creating cost pressure from FY28 onwards. While annual manpower reduction (~50,000 legacy employees on rolls) provides some offset, the quantum of wage hike is unknown and will impact margins.
Key quotes
- The ISCO expansion once expansion is over in time then the numbers should be more than 10,000 rupees per ton from ISP
- In quarter four you'll find an increase of around 1,500 rupees over quarter three is what I'm guessing
- The price increases at the trade level in India has been much larger but the company level price increases have been lagging so far
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