Sequential Revenue Recovery
Management targets sequential revenue improvement from Q2 onwards with H2 acceleration, aiming to approach last FY levels despite muted Q1. Execution may be affected by monsoon in Q2.
RITES / guidance tracker
Keep management guidance in view.
RITES · forward-looking guidance across the available source record.
Research layer active
Guidance tracker
What management said would happen.
revenue
Margin Range Stabilization
EBITDA margins expected to "remain in this range" (Q1 levels) with "maybe a little improvement" as export and non-IR QA revenue ramps. Individual stream margins: Consultancy ~40%, Turnkey 2-3% blended.
One Order Per Day Target
Management maintained the target of "one order a day" on an FY basis, having achieved ~0.92 orders/day in Q1. Order inflow of ~INR 3,000 crore in last few quarters versus INR 600 crore in H1 last FY.
Export Revenue Timeline
Bangladesh coaches (INR 900 crore): aim to ship first lots by Q1 FY26 with possible slippage into Q4 FY25. Mozambique locomotives (INR 300 crore): target first shipments by Q4 FY25 or Q1 FY26.
Annual EBITDA Margin Target ~20%
Management maintained guidance of ~20% EBITDA margin on annual basis, supported by Q1 uptick in consultancy contribution
Annual PAT Margin Target ~15%
PAT margin guidance of ~15% for FY26, achievable given high-margin segment mix strategy
High-Margin Segments to Contribute 60%+
Target consultancy, export, and leasing segments to contribute at least 60% of revenue mix to maintain margin profile
Turnkey Revenue Mix ~30% of Total
Turnkey segment expected to remain around 30% of total revenue, not going below this threshold on long-term basis
Substantial Revenue Growth vs FY25
Management confident of surpassing previous year's revenue substantially, driven by execution ramp-up in latter part of FY
FY26 Double-Digit Revenue Growth
With export orders (~₹1,300 crore) starting revenue recognition from early FY26 and other streams (consultancy, turnkey) growing, management expects substantial healthy growth versus FY25.
EBITDA Margin Range of 20-21%
Despite competitive pressures and margin hit from QA business restructuring, management targets consolidated EBITDA margins in the 20-21% range going forward.
Order Book Visibility to 3 Years
With current order book at ₹6,580 crore (~2.5 years visibility) and continued aggressive order inflows (targeting one order per day), management aims to maintain 3-year forward visibility.
One Export Order Per Quarter Target
Management targets securing at least one export order every quarter to sustain the export momentum broken after 3-4 years of hiatus, leveraging new business re-engineering for global tender participation.
Double-digit revenue growth target
Management aims to achieve at least double-digit top-line growth for FY26, driven by Consultancy growth of 10%+ and Turnkey execution ramping from Q4/Q1. Export revenue will contribute regularly every quarter going forward.
Turnkey revenue inflection expected H2 FY27
With 2/3 of the ₹4,300 crore Turnkey order book at 8-10 months age, meaningful revenue contribution expected from latter part of FY27 (Q3 onwards). Execution timeline: projects reach revenue-generating stage after ~12 months.
Maintain margin guardrails of 20% EBITDA and 15% PAT
Management committed to maintaining minimum EBITDA margin of 20% and PAT margin of 15% as floor levels. Margin expansion seen in Q2 due to favorable mix (higher Consultancy/Export share vs low-margin Turnkey).
Surpass last year's performance
Company stated it will not only match FY25 top and bottom line but exceed them 'by a substantial quantum' in FY26, though Q2 revenue was nearly flat.
FY26 Revenue Growth Target of 20%+
Management targets at least 20% top line growth in FY26 versus FY25, driven by execution from the INR 8,000 crore order book, particularly export orders from Bangladesh (INR 900 crore) and Mozambique, plus improved turnkey execution.
FY25 Full-Year Decline Capped
For FY25, management aims for top line dip below 10% and PAT dip below 20%, with Q4 expected to be the best quarter sequentially. This is driven by INR 200 crore nine-month shortfall being partially offset by Q4 execution.
Margin Maintenance at Current Levels
Console EBITDA margins of ~20% and PAT margins of 15-16% are expected to be maintained on annual basis, despite quarterly variations due to revenue mix. Export EBITDA margins will be ~10% (versus historical 20%+), but blended with high-margin consultancy, overall targets are achievable.
Quarterly Export Order Target
Management targets at least one export order per quarter, having maintained this for four consecutive quarters. Order sizes can range from INR 40-50 crore to INR 200-300+ crore, depending on opportunities in Africa, Southeast Asia, and Latin America.
Double-digit revenue growth for FY2026 vs FY2025
Management reiterated guidance for double-digit YoY revenue and profitability growth, with Q4 expected to be significantly higher than Q3 as export shipments (4 locomotives) and turnkey execution accelerate.
FY2027 as 'disruptive growth' year
With INR 9,262 crore order book (65% less than 1 year old) and all-time high international order book of INR 2,150 crore, management projects significantly higher growth in FY2027 as export and turnkey revenue ramps.
Q4 turnkey revenue to grow 10%+ vs Q3 sequentially
Turnkey execution has started picking up (INR 60 crore sequential growth in Q3). Management targets at least double-digit sequential growth in Q4, with the young order book now in the 12-18 month execution window.
Q4 export revenue minimum INR 120 crore
Based on 4 additional Mozambique locomotives to be shipped in Q4 (vs 4 shipped in 9M), minimum INR 120 crore export revenue is expected in Q4. Bangladesh coach deliveries to start from early FY2027.
95% dividend payout policy to continue
Management reaffirmed the high dividend payout policy, stating no surprises and commitment to returning capital to shareholders.
20% revenue growth target for FY26
Management aims to break the highest-ever revenue record in FY26, driven by commencement of export order execution and continued consultancy growth.
EBITDA margin ~20% and PAT margin 15-16% for FY26
Margins expected to settle in these ranges as the mix shifts further toward competitive bidding, with Q4's 30% margin not representative of sustainable run-rate.
CapEx below ₹100 crore for FY26
Company maintains its low-CapEx business model with FY26 CapEx expected in ₹50-75 crore range, well below ₹100 crore threshold.
Export revenue commencement in Q1-Q2 FY26
Mozambique locomotive deliveries (10 units, ₹300 crore) expected to start by Q1/Q2 FY26; Bangladesh coach deliveries (200 units, ₹900 crore) expected from latter part of FY26.