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PNB Housing Finance delivered a strong Q4 FY26 with retail loan book growing 16% YoY to ₹86,946 crore and PAT up 18% YoY to ₹2,291 crore for the full year. Disbursements surged 36% YoY in Q4, driven by a rebound in affordable housing (up 69% QoQ) and strong emerging market growth. Asset quality improved with GNPA falling below 1% to 0.93%. Management guided for retail loan book growth of 18-20% in FY27, with NIM in the 3.55-3.65% range and ROA of 2.4-2.5%. Key risks include geopolitical tensions impacting inflation and interest rates, and potential normalization of credit cost as recoveries taper.
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Guidance to track
- Management expects retail loan book to grow 18-20% in FY27, crossing ₹1 lakh crore.
- Net interest margin is expected to be in the range of 3.55% to 3.65% for FY27.
- Return on assets is guided at 2.4% to 2.5% for FY27, factoring in negative credit cost of 15-20 bps.
- Credit cost is expected to be negative 15-20 bps in FY27 due to recoveries from return of pool accounts.
Risks flagged
- Ongoing geopolitical conflict may keep crude oil prices elevated, leading to higher inflation and interest rates, which could marginally impact asset quality.
- Despite management's confidence that yields have bottomed out, incremental yields have been declining, and competitive pressures could delay improvement.
- Once recoveries from return of pool accounts taper, credit cost could normalize to 20-30 bps, pressuring ROA if not offset by higher yields.
Key quotes
- We are looking for loan book to cross more than a lakh cr in 27, retail loan book projected to grow between 18 to 20%.
- Our G&P continues to improve and is now below 1% March standing at 0.93% as of March 26.
- In our view, the yield have bottomed out and should start improving from Q127.
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