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Revenue
₹1,67,213 Cr
verified against source
Revenue YoY
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EBITDA
Pending
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Actual signal trajectory
Where this quarter sits.
Quarter read
What the record says.
ONGC reported a turnaround in domestic oil and gas production during Q3 FY25, with crude oil output growing 1.02% YoY and gas production showing a marginal increase, reversing a multi-year decline. The KG-DWN-98/2 field is now producing 35,000 barrels of oil per day and 3 MMSCMD of gas, with peak oil expected at 45,000 bpd by Q1 FY26. The strategic partnership with BP for the Mumbai High field targets a 60% increase in oil and gas production over baseline over 10 years. Management guided for continued production growth, supported by 25 major projects and a planned capex of ~INR 36,920 crore for FY26. Risks include potential delays in KG-DWN-98/2 gas ramp-up due to weather and installation timelines, and the petrochemical downcycle impacting OPaL's margins.
Colored figures show movement against the previous available record.
Guidance to track
- Management guided for standalone production of 44.5 MMTOE (crude oil 21.96 MMTOE, gas 22.63 MMTOE) for the period, excluding BP upside.
- Oil production from KG-DWN-98/2 expected to reach peak of 45,000 bpd by end of FY25 or Q1 FY26.
- ONGC targets 10 GW of renewable energy capacity by 2030, with ~40% expected by end of FY25.
- OPaL will receive full contracted gas volume of 3.2 MMSCMD from ONGC's new finds starting April 2025, improving margins.
Risks flagged
- Gas production ramp-up from KG-DWN-98/2 may be delayed due to weather conditions in the East Coast and installation timelines for remaining structures.
- OPaL's margins remain under pressure from the petrochemical downcycle, with ethylene-naphtha spreads at $300-350/ton, though gas allocation and SEZ exit may help.
- About $250 million of dividends from Russian projects are stuck in Russian banks due to sanctions, with no clear timeline for repatriation.
- ONGC's late entry into renewables may face execution challenges; management acknowledged being a 'second mover' and targets 10 GW by 2030, which is ambitious given current capacity of 193 MW.
Key quotes
- If this comes true, and we have no reason to disbelieve that it won't come true because it has come from their offer, it is not our estimation. It is the estimation of a bidder who happens to be one of the international oil company and international oil major.
- ONGC cannot go down now on production if TSP materializes in a big way. Also we have now KG-DWN-98/2, that is Eastern Offshore, we are producing 35,000. Next month or three months, we'll add another gas production.
- Whatever we do, we are a single, we are married for life. We are not married for five years. So this is something that we should, that we are here to stay. We have come later, but we are going to stay in renewables.
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