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Revenue
₹1,67,357 Cr
verified against source
Revenue YoY
—
reported change
EBITDA
Pending
latest reported figure
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Actual signal trajectory
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Quarter read
What the record says.
ONGC reported Q3 FY24 standalone PAT of INR 9,536 crore, down 13.7% YoY due to lower crude and gas realizations and GST on royalty provisions. Crude oil realization fell to $81.59/bbl from $87.13/bbl YoY. Production from the KG-DWN-98/2 project has commenced at 12,000 bbl/day oil and 1.75 MMSCFD gas, with peak production expected by FY26. Management guided for ~15% production growth over three years via multiple projects (KG 98/2, Daman Upside, CBM) with a CapEx of INR 60,000 crore. OpEx rose 1.7% YoY in Q3, but CFO attributed most increases to one-off items. Risks include potential SAED applicability on new KG production and cost inflation from rig rates.
Colored figures show movement against the previous available record.
Guidance to track
- Management expects total oil and gas production to increase by ~15% by FY26-27, driven by KG 98/2, Daman Upside, and other projects.
- CFO guided standalone CapEx of INR 33,000 crore in FY24 and INR 33,000-35,000 crore in FY25, with ~60% on development projects.
- Incremental gas from new wells will fetch $9-$10/MMBTU under the premium pricing mechanism, improving realizations.
- Management indicated continued dividend payout of around 40%, with INR 9.75 per share already paid in 9M FY24.
Risks flagged
- Management is reviewing whether the windfall tax (SAED) applies to new KG production; if imposed, it could reduce realizations.
- New jackup rig rates have risen to $70,000-$90,000/day from COVID lows, potentially increasing drilling costs.
- Dividends from Russian operations remain stuck due to sanctions; management is pursuing a share swap to resolve.
- Nine-month OpEx rose 25% YoY partly due to one-off items (water injection, LD payments); if these recur, margins could be pressured.
Key quotes
- We anticipate that we will be ending this year on similar numbers as we were having in the FY 2023 or slightly better than that.
- We hope to have an increase by around 15% in the next three years by 2026-2027.
- We have been pursuing with the government for reviewing this [SAED]. But currently, it will be difficult for us to say exactly what will happen.
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