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ONGC reported a 23% YoY rise in consolidated net profit to ₹11,946 crore in Q3 FY26, driven by higher gas revenue, lower statutory levies, and improved subsidiary performance, despite a 12% drop in crude oil realizations to $61.63/bbl. Standalone PAT grew 1.6% YoY to ₹8,372 crore. Key operational highlights include the near-completion of KG-DWN-98/2 subsea infrastructure, with first gas expected from April 2026 and ramp-up to 5-6 mmscmd by FY27-end. The Dan-Upside project is on track for first gas in March 2026, adding 4-5 mmscmd. Mumbai High decline has been arrested with BP's technical support, showing early production gains. Management guided for FY27 standalone production of 42.5 million metric tonnes of oil and gas equivalent, with capex of ₹32,000-33,000 crore. A second interim dividend of ₹6.25/share was declared, bringing cumulative interim dividends to a record ₹15,411 crore. Risk: KG basin ramp-up delays could disappoint if commissioning slips.
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Guidance to track
- Management targets 42.5 million metric tonnes of oil and gas equivalent for FY27, with oil at ~21 MMT and gas at ~21.5 MMT.
- Capex for FY27 is expected to remain in the range of ₹32,000-33,000 crore, primarily for exploration and production.
- Management targets an additional ₹1,000 crore in cost savings through inventory rationalization, logistics optimization, and renewable energy integration.
- The share of new well gas in total gas production is expected to rise from 18% to around 24% by FY27, driven by incremental output from nomination fields.
Risks flagged
- Despite installation completion, any further delays in hook-up and commissioning could push first gas beyond Q1 FY27, impacting production targets.
- Crude oil prices declined 12% YoY to $61.63/bbl in Q3; sustained low prices could pressure revenue and profitability despite cost measures.
- The GST on oil services was raised from 12% to 18%, with no input tax credit relief expected, adding to cost pressures.
- OPaL still carries net debt of ₹23,000-24,000 crore; while profitability is improving, any downturn in petrochemical margins could strain cash flows.
Key quotes
- We expect that the gas flow from these wells should start from the next quarter which is from April to June onwards and the gas would be ramped up coming towards the end of financial year 27.
- The decline has been arrested. There has been an addition to that but figures we'll give you at the end of the year.
- We are targeting that we should be reducing our costs by around 1,000 crores by the various measures that we have undertaken.
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