Execution delays in renewable projects
Renewable capacity addition was muted in Q2 due to clearance and module sourcing issues; bulk expected in Q4.
NTPC / bear-case history
Track the concerns that keep returning.
Ntpc · risk themes across the available quarters.
Research layer active
Bear-case history
Risks carried through the record.
medium
Coal inventory tightness at non-pithead plants
Coal stock at pithead stations is low, though overall stock is 8.5 days; receipts expected to improve.
Pumped storage project delays
THDC pump hydro project faced last-minute issues; first unit now expected by Jan/Feb 2024.
Regulatory uncertainty on grid code
New grid code may impact power sales; NTPC is in dialogue with regulator on concerns.
FGD policy uncertainty
Government may stop issuing new FGD tenders; though NTPC is hedged via cost-plus mechanism, any change could impact project timelines.
Rising thermal project costs
CapEx per MW for new thermal projects has risen beyond ₹12 crore due to mandatory air-cooled condensers and limited bidders.
Under-recovery from disincentives
Under-recovery increased to ₹495 crore in Q2 from ₹381 crore last year due to higher planned outages (6.12% vs 5.19%).
PPA signing delays for thermal projects
Some thermal projects (e.g., Gadarwara Stage-II) have only 68% PPA consent; balance expected in four months but could slip.
EESL losses continue
Energy Efficiency Services Limited continues to incur losses due to delayed receivables from urban local bodies; management acknowledged seriousness but no clear timeline for resolution.
Renewable commissioning delays due to monsoon
Q2 renewable capacity addition slipped by 300-400 MW due to rains; wind projects face right-of-way challenges for heavy vehicle movement.
Subdued power demand impacting generation
Group generation fell by 6 billion units in H1 due to milder summer and extended monsoon, leading to lower PLF and potential fixed cost under-recovery.
BESS co-located with solar lacks PPA visibility
Management indicated that battery storage co-located with solar projects may initially operate on merchant basis, with no firm tie-ups yet, creating revenue uncertainty.
Renewable execution delays
Module supply issues have delayed renewable commissioning; only 1 GW expected by March 2024 out of 7.8 GW under construction.
Transmission connectivity challenges
Analyst raised concern about transmission delays impacting renewable aspirations; management acknowledged minor delays but expects no material impact.
Regulatory deferral volatility
Standalone profit before regulatory deferral declined YoY; management attributed to one-time accounting changes but could recur.
Bangladesh plant shutdown
BIFPCL plant shut due to coal and dollar shortage; INR 1,324 Cr equity at risk.
Execution delays in thermal projects
BHEL-related delays in commissioning of Patratu and North Karanpura units; management expressed optimism but risks remain.
Renewable capacity addition back-ended
Only 640 MW added in 9M FY25 vs 3,088 MW target; heavy reliance on Q4 execution.
Curtailment losses in renewables
NGEL lost 420 MU and Ayana lost 212 MU due to grid curtailment in 9M FY26, impacting generation and profitability.
Delays in thermal project awards
Meja and Lara thermal awards are delayed due to approval processes and contractor extensions, pushing timelines.
Aggressive green ammonia bid
The SECI green ammonia bid won by NGEL appears aggressive on pricing, though management claims healthy IRR.
Fixed cost under-recovery
Fixed cost under-recovery stood at INR 454 crore as of December 2025, though efforts are being made to reduce it.
Renewable execution delays
Commissioning of renewable projects slower than guided due to module import clearance delays and land acquisition issues.
Under-recovery from disallowances
INR 776 crores under-recovery in FY24 due to lower availability at Barh and Barauni plants; though management expects reduction.
Dividend from subsidiaries declined
Dividend from JVs and subsidiaries fell from INR 2,336 crores in FY23 to INR 1,630 crores in FY24 due to retained earnings for reinvestment.
PPA availability for new thermal capacity
Out of 15.2 GW planned, only 8 GW has PPAs signed; remaining 7 GW needs tie-up with states/ministry.
Renewable project execution delays
Land and transmission connectivity remain key challenges; management acknowledged connectivity may become available only by FY29-30.
Thermal project slippages at Obra and Anpara
These projects are on hold due to coal availability and water issues, potentially impacting thermal capacity addition targets.
PPA status uncertainty for renewable pipeline
Management did not provide a clear breakdown of PPA coverage for the 17 GW pipeline, leaving revenue visibility unclear.
Chhabra plant acquisition delays
Discussions on modalities and coal arrangements are still ongoing; no timeline for completion was provided.