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Northern ARC Capital delivered a strong Q4 FY26 with PAT of ₹133 crore (up 32% QoQ) and full-year PAT of ₹406 crore (+33% YoY), driven by AUM growth of 22% YoY to ₹16,594 crore and NIM expansion of 25bps to 9.4%. The direct-to-customer segment now constitutes 59% of AUM, with MSME finance growing 43% YoY and consumer finance maintaining risk-adjusted yields of ~15%. Credit costs improved to 2.2% in Q4 (full year 2.8%), aided by RBI's FLG clarity and better collection efficiency. Management guided for AUM growth of 22-25% in FY27 and ROA of 3%+, with ROE targeting mid-to-late teens over 8-10 quarters. Key risk: geopolitical tensions in West Asia could impact MSME portfolio segments (currently <2% exposure).
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Guidance to track
- Management expects to grow AUM at about 3x GDP, implying 22-25% growth, barring major macro shocks.
- Targeting return on assets above 3% and return on equity of 15-18% over the next 8-10 quarters.
- Credit cost expected to remain in the range of 2.7-2.8% for FY27, in line with FY26 levels.
- Management expects to maintain cost of funds at 8.5-8.6% as interest rates have bottomed out.
Risks flagged
- Management flagged potential impact on MSME portfolio from West Asia conflict, though current exposure is <2%.
- Rising rates could increase cost of funds; management has shifted to fixed-rate borrowings to mitigate.
- Analyst raised concern about partner concentration; management noted 28 partners but did not disclose top share.
Key quotes
- Our sense is that we should be able to grow a business at about three times of GDP. So look at anywhere between 22 to 25%.
- We will be able to hold on to the numbers that we have demonstrated this year so maybe we will not see any further reduction but I think 8.5 to 8.6% is something we'll be able to hold.
- Our objective is to get to three plus return on assets and like we said over the next 8 to 10 quarters get to mid-teens and late teens ROE.
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