NAVA · risk themes across the available quarters.
Bear-case history
Exchange-based power sales have dropped approximately 12% YoY, with domestic spot prices under pressure. Management is mitigating through long-term bilateral contracts like the 5-year Tamil Nadu PPA at Rs 5/kWh.
The ferroalloy segment has dropped from Rs 2 crore EBITDA to near breakeven despite an 8% QoQ price improvement. While ferroalloy provides top-line scale, profitability remains challenged even with recent safeguard duties on steel.
Mamba Energy owes approximately $30.5 million to Nava, representing a significant outstanding balance that could impact cash flow timing despite the overall positive relationship.
The Io Gry Coast lithium concession spanning 360 square kilometers remains in exploration stage with no meaningful discovery disclosed. These projects typically have multi-year timelines with no guaranteed commercial viability.
European Union imposed safeguard duties on Indian manganese alloy imports, pressuring domestic prices as export volumes are diverted locally.
Lithium exploration in Zambia is stalled due to a competing claim by another company; progress depends on ministry resolution.
Zambian kwacha appreciation created a non-cash deferred tax liability; future exchange rate swings could impact reported earnings.
Exchange-based power tariffs dropped 13% YoY due to renewable capacity additions; management relies on bilateral contracts to mitigate.