Alumina price weakness
Alumina spot prices have fallen to ~$310-320/tonne and are expected to remain under pressure due to excess supply from Indonesia and reduced Middle East smelter demand.
NATIONALALUMINIUM / Q4-FY26 / risks
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National Aluminium · Material risks, their source context, and severity in the latest available quarter.
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Material risks this quarter
high
Rising input costs
Costs of caustic soda, CPC, CT pitch, and HFO have increased significantly in Q1 FY27, which could push aluminium production costs above ₹1,60,000/tonne.
Delay in fifth stream refinery ramp-up
The new refinery commissioning may take 3-4 months, and the optimistic 2 lakh tonne addition target may be missed if stabilization is slower.
Geopolitical disruption in Middle East exports
Exports to the Middle East, historically 40-50% of alumina sales, have been disrupted due to war and smelter shutdowns, with uncertain recovery timeline.