Alumina price weakness
Alumina spot prices have fallen to ~$310-320/tonne and are expected to remain under pressure due to excess supply from Indonesia and reduced Middle East smelter demand.
NATIONALALUMINIUM / bear-case history
Track the concerns that keep returning.
National Aluminium · risk themes across the available quarters.
Research layer active
Bear-case history
Risks carried through the record.
high
Rising input costs
Costs of caustic soda, CPC, CT pitch, and HFO have increased significantly in Q1 FY27, which could push aluminium production costs above ₹1,60,000/tonne.
Delay in fifth stream refinery ramp-up
The new refinery commissioning may take 3-4 months, and the optimistic 2 lakh tonne addition target may be missed if stabilization is slower.
Geopolitical disruption in Middle East exports
Exports to the Middle East, historically 40-50% of alumina sales, have been disrupted due to war and smelter shutdowns, with uncertain recovery timeline.