FY24 production guidance of 26.34 million tons
Management confirmed the annual production target of 26.34 million tons, with Q1 achieving 100% of the quarterly target.
JSWSTEEL / guidance tracker
Keep management guidance in view.
JSW Steel · forward-looking guidance across the available source record.
Research layer active
Guidance tracker
What management said would happen.
growth
Q2 coking coal cost benefit of $45-50/ton
Coking coal costs are expected to decline by $45-50 per ton in Q2, providing a significant cost offset.
Capacity expansion to 37 million tons by FY25
Brownfield expansions at Vijayanagar, BPSL, and JSW Steel Coated will increase India capacity to 37 million tons by FY25.
Medium-term capacity target of 50 million tons
The company aims to reach 50 million tons capacity by 2030-31 through brownfield and modular greenfield expansions.
Consolidated production guidance of 28.4 million tons and sales guidance of 27 million tons for FY25 remains on track.
Management reaffirmed annual production and sales targets despite Q1 disruptions.
Consolidated CapEx for FY25 expected to be about INR 30,000 crore.
Capital expenditure guidance for the full year, including expansions and mining payments.
Q2 raw material cost savings: coking coal down $23-$28/ton, iron ore softer.
Benefits from lower input costs expected to improve steel spreads in Q2.
New capacities at Vijayanagar and BPSL to ramp up in Q3 FY25.
Blast furnace and SMS at Vijayanagar commissioning by end-July/August; BPSL phase two ramp-up by Q3.
Q2 volumes expected to increase sequentially
Management expects higher volumes in Q2 as shutdowns are behind and JVML second converter starts.
Coking coal cost benefit of ~$5/ton in Q2
Coking coal costs expected to be marginally lower QoQ by about $5 per ton.
Dolvi Phase III expansion on track for Sep 2027
Dolvi expansion from 10 to 15 MTPA progressing well, on schedule for completion by September 2027.
India steel demand growth 8.5%-9.5% for FY26
CRISIL forecast of demand growth in the range of 8.5%-9.5% for the financial year, supported by government capex and monetary easing.
Production and sales guidance on track for FY24
Management confirmed they are on track to achieve their production and sales guidance for FY24, with better volumes in H2 driven by BPSL capacity expansion and improved utilization.
Capacity expansion to 37 million tons by FY25
JSW Steel is adding 8.5 million tons of capacity to reach 37 million tons by FY25, with brownfield expansions at Vizag (5 million tons) and BPSL (to 5 million tons) on track.
CapEx of INR 52,000 crore until FY26
The company plans a CapEx of INR 52,000 crore until FY26 for growth to 37 million tons and downstream projects, funded mostly through internal accruals.
Coking coal cost expected to moderate
Management expects current elevated coking coal prices to moderate, with Q3 costs likely about $30/ton higher than Q2 due to blending benefits, and further moderation thereafter.
FY25 volume guidance maintained at 27M tons sales, 28.4M tons production
Management reaffirmed full-year sales and production targets despite H1 headwinds, expecting H2 ramp-up from new capacities.
Q3 coking coal cost reduction of $20-25/ton
Coking coal costs expected to decline further in Q3, aiding margin expansion.
FY25 CapEx revised down to INR 16,000-17,000 crore
Reduction due to slurry pipeline transfer to JSW Infrastructure and BF3 shutdown deferral to FY26.
Net debt to EBITDA target of 2.5-3x in medium term
CFO committed to reducing leverage, with absolute debt expected to taper in H2 from working capital release.
Steel prices expected to improve in November-December
Management expects steel prices to rise in Q3 as channel inventories are low and demand picks up seasonally.
Coking coal cost increase of INR 3-5 in Q3
Coking coal costs are expected to rise by INR 3-5 per ton in October-December due to PLV changes.
Iron ore prices expected to decline in Q3
Management expects iron ore prices to decline in Q3, which would be positive for costs.
Annual CapEx of ~INR 20,000 crore per year
Total CapEx of INR 69,000 crore over next 3.5 years, with ~INR 20,000 crore per year funded through internal accruals.
FY24 volume guidance reiterated: 26.34M tons production, 25M tons sales
Consolidated production and sales targets for FY24 remain unchanged despite Q3 sales dip.
Coking coal cost expected to increase $20-$25/ton in Q4
Landed cost expected to rise from $252/ton in Q3 due to elevated global prices.
CapEx spend of ~INR 18,000 crore in FY24
Lower than earlier estimate of INR 20,000 crore due to timing of payments spilling into Q1 FY25.
Net zero by 2050 commitment
Long-term target with interim goal of 1.95 tCO2/tcs by 2030, using renewables, efficiency, and circularity.
FY25 volume guidance at ~98% of 28.4M tons production target
Management expects to achieve around 98% of the guided production volume of 28.4 million tons for FY25, due to delayed startup of JVML facility.
Q4 coking coal cost reduction of $10-$15 per ton
Coking coal costs are expected to be lower by about $10-$15 per ton in Q4, aiding margins.
Q4 iron ore cost benefit of ~₹350/ton from NMDC price cut
NMDC's iron ore price reduction of about ₹350 per ton in January will reflect in consumption costs in February and March.
FY26 iron ore production target of ~28M tons from captive mines
Management targets about 15 million tons from Karnataka, 12 million tons from Odisha, and 1.3-1.4 million tons from Goa in FY26.
FY26 volume guidance maintained: production 30.5M tons, sales 29.2M tons
Management expects to broadly achieve full-year guidance for production and sales, with Q4 volumes similar to Q3.
Q4 margins expected to improve
Steel prices have recovered INR 3,500/ton since end-December, offsetting higher coking coal costs ($15-20/ton increase).
FY27 India steel demand growth 7-9%
Management projects India steel demand growth of 7-9% for FY2027.
FY26 capex guidance INR 15,000-16,000 crore
Total capex for FY26 expected in the range of INR 15,000-16,000 crore.
FY25 production guidance of 28.4 million tons
Consolidated crude steel production target for FY25, with sales guidance of 27 million tons, reflecting ramp-up of new capacities.
Consolidated CapEx of INR 20,000 crore in FY25
Capital expenditure planned for the fiscal year, funded largely through internal accruals, with net debt expected to remain flattish.
Coking coal cost to decline $22-27/ton in Q1 FY25
Expectation of lower input costs due to recent fall in coking coal prices, supporting margin improvement.
Return to normative EBITDA per ton in FY25
Management expects EBITDA per ton to improve from Q4 levels, aided by cost savings, stable prices, and lower coking coal costs.
FY26 production guidance of 30.5 million tons
Consolidated crude steel production expected at 30.5 million tons, implying ~10% growth over FY25.
FY26 sales guidance of 29.2 million tons
Steel sales guided at 29.2 million tons, also ~10% growth, in line with domestic demand growth.
Q1 FY26 coking coal cost reduction of $10-$15/ton
Coking coal costs expected to be lower by $10-$15 per ton in Q1 FY26 compared to Q4 FY25.
Q1 FY26 price improvement of INR 3,200-3,250/ton
Realizations expected to improve by INR 3,200-3,250 per ton in Q1 FY26 vs Q4 FY25 due to price hikes in March-April.
FY27 consolidated production target of 29.75 million tons
Management guided production of 29.75 million tons for FY27, representing ~13% growth on a like-for-like basis (excluding BPSL).
FY27 sales volume guidance of 28.6 million tons
Sales volume expected at 28.6 million tons, implying ~10% growth YoY, including BMM Ispat acquisition.
Capex of ₹22,000-24,000 crore in FY27
Part of the ₹126,000 crore growth capex plan to be spent over 4-5 years; FY27 spend guided at ₹22,000-24,000 crore.
Target of 62 million tons standalone capacity by FY32
JSW Steel aims to expand standalone capacity to 62 million tons by FY32, with additional 16 million tons via JVs (JF Steel and POSCO).