FY24 volume growth target of ~15%
Management expects total electricity volume to grow around 15% in FY24, supported by July volumes already up 22%.
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Long Duration Contracts volume target >5 BU in FY24
Management expects volumes in the Long Duration Contracts segment to exceed 5 billion units in FY24.
Carbon credit exchange launch within FY24
IEX plans to launch its voluntary carbon credit exchange platform within the current financial year.
Market coupling implementation by February 2026
CERC ordered coupling of day-ahead markets by Feb 2026; IEX management expressed skepticism about timeline feasibility due to operational complexities.
Green RTM and term-ahead contract approvals awaited
Petitions for green RTM and 3-11 month term-ahead contracts are pending CERC approval; hearings completed for green RTM.
Coal exchange and EPR platform development
Stakeholder comments closed for coal exchange; awaiting MMDR amendment. EPR platform EOI filed with CPCB, decision pending.
Launch of 11-month long-duration contracts by January 2024
IEX will file a petition with CERC in 10-15 days to offer contracts up to 11 months, expecting approval by end-December and launch from January 2024.
Expect volume growth from GNA implementation
Management expects improved volumes in coming months due to GNA regulations, with October electricity volume growth already at ~20%.
Market coupling implementation unlikely in near term
Management believes CERC has not taken a view on market coupling; even if pursued, implementation would take 1.5-2 years.
Electricity demand to grow ~7% annually for 7-8 years
Management expects India's power demand to grow at ~7% CAGR, with incremental demand of ~130 billion units, a good portion coming to exchanges.
11-month contract awaiting CERC approval
IEX has filed for approval of an 11-month contract; hearings are complete and order is reserved. Launch expected after regulatory nod.
Coal exchange and EPR trading under evaluation
IEX is exploring diversification into coal exchange and EPR trading platforms, subject to government decisions and regulatory approvals.
FY26 volume growth of 15-20%
Management expects to maintain electricity volume growth between 15-20% for the remaining fiscal year.
IGX stake reduction to 25% by Dec 2025 with extension request
IEX has applied for a 1.5-year extension to reduce its IGX equity stake from 47.5% to 25% as per PNGRB regulations.
Carbon credit trading market size comparable to REC market
Management expects the carbon credit trading market to be as big as the REC market once regulations are finalized.
Volume growth driven by thermal capacity addition and power demand
Management expects 20 GW thermal capacity addition in FY24 and power demand to exceed 256 GW in FY25, boosting exchange volumes.
URS power offering to improve sell liquidity
Draft rules mandate generators to offer un-requisitioned surplus power on exchanges, with penalties for non-compliance, expected to finalize within a month.
International Carbon Exchange launch via GIFT City
IEX plans to launch carbon exchange from GIFT City to facilitate dollar-denominated transactions, targeting launch in FY25.
Volume growth target of 15-20% for FY26
Management expects 15-20% volume growth in FY26, assuming GDP-linked power demand growth of 6-7% and continued supply-side improvements.
Green RTM launch expected in 2-3 months
CERC has admitted the petition for green real-time market; management expects launch within 2-3 months after public consultation and hearing.
Long-duration contracts (up to 11 months) launch in 3-4 months
Hearings completed, order reserved; management expects launch within 3-4 months, potentially opening a 40 BU market.
2 GW renewable sell potential by year-end
Management expects up to 2 GW of renewable capacity (including VPPA and merchant) to participate in spot markets by end of FY25.
Power exchange volume growth of 15-20% annually
Management expects IEX electricity volumes to grow at 15-20% per annum, consistent with historical trends.
Gas exchange volume growth of 25-30% over 4-5 years
IGX volumes are expected to grow at 25-30% annually over the next 4-5 years, driven by lower gas prices.
IGX IPO planned within this fiscal year
IEX plans to proceed with the IPO of Indian Gas Exchange this fiscal year, subject to regulatory approvals.
FY25 volume growth >15%
Management expects IEX volume growth to exceed 15% in FY25, driven by 7-8% power demand growth and market share gains.
REC segment growth 25-30% in FY25
REC volumes expected to grow 25-30% in FY25, supported by lower prices and increased compliance.
Green market volume growth ~50% in FY25
Green market volumes expected to grow ~50% in FY25, recovering from a low base in FY24.
Long duration contracts target ~15 BU in FY25
Management targets ~15 BU in long duration contracts in FY25, up from 10 BU in FY24.
REC volume target of 20 million units for FY26
Management expects to trade about 20 billion units (20 million RECs) in FY26, implying ~12% growth over FY25's 17.8 million.
11-month TAM contract approval expected in 2-3 months
CERC approval for extending Term-Ahead Market contracts from 90 days to 11 months is expected soon, unlocking a 40 BU addressable market.
Coal exchange launch subject to regulatory amendments
Government is working on amending the MMDRA to facilitate coal exchange; IEX is engaging with stakeholders but timeline is uncertain.
FY27 volume growth of 15-20%
Management expects to maintain 15-20% volume growth in FY27, supported by rising power demand and new capacity additions.
IGX volumes to recover from Q2 FY27
IGX volumes may be flat in Q1 FY27 due to Middle East disruptions but should recover from Q2 onwards.
Coal exchange exploration
Board has approved in-principle to explore establishing a coal exchange, pending final regulations from Ministry of Coal.