HINDPETRO / guidance tracker

Keep management guidance in view.

HPCL · forward-looking guidance across the available source record.

Research layer active

Guidance tracker

What management said would happen.

Samriddhi cost savings target of ₹1,000-1,500 crore

Management targets ₹1,000-1,500 crore annual EBITDA uplift through operational efficiencies, with ₹250 crore already locked in Q1.

margins

Visakhapatnam ROUP commissioning in Q2 FY26

Residue upgradation project expected to commission within weeks, boosting distillate yields to ~83% and improving GRMs from H2 FY26.

growth

Debt/equity target below 1.2x

Management aims to maintain debt/equity below 1.2x, with focus on deleveraging; current level at 1.01x.

other

Chhara terminal capacity utilization 10-15% in FY26, 35-40% in FY27

LNG terminal at Chhara to operate at low utilization in FY26 due to breakwater completion, ramping up in FY27.

growth

Debt-equity target revised to sub-1.0 by FY26 end

Management revised the debt-equity target from 1.1 to below 1.0 by March 2026, aided by strong cash generation and LPG compensation.

other

Visakh refinery commissioning in 3-4 weeks

The Visakh refinery is expected to start crude feed by November 24, 2025, with full stabilization in Q4 FY26, adding ₹2,500-3,000 crore EBITDA annually.

growth

Barmer refinery crude feed in next couple of months

The Barmer refinery is 89% complete; crude feed is expected in the next couple of months, with full ramp-up within 3 months thereafter.

growth

Samidhi cost savings target of ₹1,000 crore for FY26

The cost takeout program achieved ₹823 crore in H1 FY26; management is confident of exceeding the ₹1,000 crore target and launching Samidhi 2.0 from April 2026.

margins

Visakh refinery performance guarantee test by March 2026

Targeting 100% utilization for 3 consecutive days in March to pass licensor performance guarantee test.

growth

Rajasthan refinery first product in February 2026, full capacity by Q1 FY27

First branch of products expected in February, with full refinery ramp-up by Q1 FY27; petchem may take an additional quarter.

growth

Net debt-to-equity to end FY26 below 1.15x

Despite Q4 cyclical increase, full-year leverage will be lower than the earlier guidance of 1.15-1.2x.

other

Samriddhi 2.0 efficiency program with external support

Next phase of cost optimization targeting harder-to-achieve initiatives, with guidance to be provided in next analyst call.

margins

Barmer refinery COD in Q1 FY27

Expect to achieve COD shortly, operate at 60% capacity in June, full ramp-up from Q2.

expansion

RFCC unit full ramp-up in 1-2 months

After catalyst clogging, unit is back on stream; full benefits expected from end of Q1 or Q2.

growth

Q1 FY27 expected to be loss-making

Management guided that Q1 will be very tough with losses due to high crude and low product prices.

revenue

Capex flexibility in FY27

Projected capex slightly lower than FY26; discretionary spends deferred; committed capex continues.

capex