Hindalco Industries / Q3-FY24

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Positive2024-02-09Back to HINDALCO

Revenue

₹52,808 Cr

verified against source

Revenue YoY

—

reported change

EBITDA

₹6,985 Cr

latest reported figure

Source

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record provenance

Actual signal trajectory

Where this quarter sits.

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EBITDA (₹ Cr)PositiveWatchNegative
11 actual records
Actual quarterly EBITDA (₹ Cr) trajectoryReported values plotted by quarter. Hover or focus a point for its quarter, value, and source sentiment.Q1 FY24: 6,109 · Watch source sentiment · 2023-08-11Q1 FY24Q2 FY24: 6,096 · Watch source sentiment · 2023-10-31Q2 FY24Q3 FY24: 6,985 · Positive source sentiment · 2024-02-09Q3 FY24Q4 FY24: 7,200 · Positive source sentiment · 2024-05-15Q4 FY24Q1 FY25: 7,992 · Positive source sentiment · 2024-08-01Q1 FY25Q2 FY25: 9,100 · Positive source sentiment · 2024-11-08Q2 FY25Q3 FY25: 8,108 · Positive source sentiment · 2025-02-07Q3 FY25Q4 FY25: 9,774 · Positive source sentiment · 2025-04-30Q4 FY25Q1 FY26: 8,539 · Watch source sentiment · 2025-08-01Q1 FY26Q2 FY26: 9,104 · Positive source sentiment · 2025-11-10Q2 FY26Q3 FY26: 8,762 · Watch source sentiment · 2026-02-10Q3 FY269,7746,096
Values are taken from the available verified source records; sentiment color is a separate source-read indicator.

Quarter read

What the record says.

Hindalco reported a strong Q3 FY24 with consolidated EBITDA up 36% YoY to INR 6,985 crore and PAT up 71% YoY to INR 2,331 crore, driven by recovery at Novelis, cost control in India Aluminium, and record copper performance. Novelis delivered EBITDA per ton of $499, with Q4 guidance of $525 sustainable. India Aluminium EBITDA per ton reached $880, among the best globally. Copper EBITDA hit an all-time high of INR 656 crore. The Bay Minette project cost escalated to $4.1 billion, but management maintains double-digit IRR and P85 confidence. Risks include execution on Bay Minette and potential LME price weakness.

Colored figures show movement against the previous available record.

Guidance to track

  • Novelis expects to deliver a sustainable $525 EBITDA per ton in Q4 FY24, driven by market recovery.
  • Management is 85% confident of completing the Bay Minette project at $4.1 billion, with commissioning in H2 CY2026.
  • Net leverage will increase to around 3x as Bay Minette spending ramps up, from below 2.5x at FY24 end.
  • India operations can sustain CapEx of INR 6,000-7,000 crore annually from internal cash generation.

Risks flagged

  • The project cost escalated from $2.5B to $4.1B due to civil/structural underestimation; further overruns could impact returns.
  • India Aluminium EBITDA per ton is highly dependent on LME prices; a sustained downturn could compress margins.
  • New entrants in copper may pressure margins; spot TC/RC is already declining due to supply tightness.
  • Higher auto mix has reduced recycling rates, increasing carbon intensity; regulatory or customer pushback could emerge.

Key quotes

  • Our Q4 guidance of delivering a sustainable $525 EBITDA per ton remains intact as the market continues to recover in beverage packaging and other markets show resilience.
  • The onus is on us to now execute and deliver this as we said. I know that we will not get any more margin for error that I accept.
  • We have a P85 confidence level of bringing the project in at the $4.1 billion.

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