Novelis scrap spread pressure may worsen in H2
Management acknowledged that scrap spreads are in uncharted territory and expect some worsening in Q3 and Q4 due to elevated scrap prices and seasonality.
HINDALCO / Q2-FY25 / risks
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Hindalco Industries · Material risks, their source context, and severity in the latest available quarter.
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Material risks this quarter
high
Novelis EBITDA per ton guidance of $600 may be delayed
When asked about the long-term $600/ton EBITDA target, management reiterated confidence but declined to provide short-term guidance, indicating uncertainty.
Copper TC/RCs remain at historically low levels
Spot TC/RCs are at historically low levels, which could pressure copper smelter margins if they do not recover by the time the new smelter is commissioned.
Geopolitical tensions and China slowdown pose downside risks
Management highlighted increasing geopolitical tensions, negative spillovers from China's slowdown, and financial market volatility as key risks to the global outlook.