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Revenue
₹52,991 Cr
verified against source
Revenue YoY
—
reported change
EBITDA
₹6,109 Cr
latest reported figure
Source
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record provenance
Actual signal trajectory
Where this quarter sits.
Quarter read
What the record says.
Hindalco's Q1 FY24 consolidated revenue was INR 52,991 crore, down 5% sequentially, while EBITDA rose 5% QoQ to INR 6,109 crore, driven by recovery at Novelis and India downstream. Novelis EBITDA per ton improved 11% sequentially to $479, supported by cost control and favorable mix. India upstream EBITDA margins remained strong at 24%, though EBITDA per ton fell to $691. Copper delivered record shipments of 118 KT, but EBITDA declined 11% QoQ due to a planned shutdown. Management expects Q2 costs to decline further by 3% as linkage coal share rises to 57-60%. Novelis guidance points to EBITDA per ton of $450-500 in the near term, with confidence in reaching $525 by Q4. Key risks include LME aluminum price volatility (range $2,100-2,300/ton) and delays in coal mine allocations (Chakla, Meenakshi).
Colored figures show movement against the previous available record.
Guidance to track
- Management expects costs to decline by 3% sequentially in Q2 FY24, driven by higher linkage coal share (57-60%) and lower coal prices.
- Management expressed increased confidence in achieving $525/ton EBITDA by the Jan-Mar quarter, with near-term range of $450-500.
- Downstream volumes expected to cross 90 KT in Q2 FY24, with EBITDA per ton remaining well above $200.
- Annual CapEx for Novelis guided at $1.6-1.9 billion; Q1 spend was $333 million, expected to ramp up.
Risks flagged
- LME aluminum prices remain volatile between $2,100-2,300/ton, with uncertainty around Chinese production and demand.
- Regulatory issues with Coal Bearing Areas Act continue to delay allocation of Meenakshi mine; Chakla mine expected only in FY25.
- Novelis shipments declined 6% QoQ due to lower can shipments; recovery hinges on return of promotional activities in North America.
- Spot TC/RCs at 21-22 cents/lb are below the annual benchmark of 22.5 cents, pressuring copper margins.
Key quotes
- We are quite encouraged now, and we think that, you know, Q2 will be down another 3%.
- We continue to say that as we move this fiscal year, which means in the Jan-March quarter, our confidence has gone up even more as compared to what was more than the capital markets day, that we will be getting to 525 for some.
- I think that largely outperformance of Hindalco will rest on its downstream businesses, whether it's Novelis, whether it's India Aluminum or it's copper.
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