Q1-FY24 · Satish Pai
We are quite encouraged now, and we think that, you know, Q2 will be down another 3%.
Hindalco Industries · tone and specificity signals across the available quarters.
Language signals
We are quite encouraged now, and we think that, you know, Q2 will be down another 3%.
We continue to say that as we move this fiscal year, which means in the Jan-March quarter, our confidence has gone up even more as compared to what was more than the capital markets day, that we will be getting to 525 for some.
I think that largely outperformance of Hindalco will rest on its downstream businesses, whether it's Novelis, whether it's India Aluminum or it's copper.
We were not able to get that valuation. And hence, we pulled it back because we were not doing it for cash, we didn't need it. We wanted it to do it for the valuation.
I think that the pricing of commodities is not being driven by supply, demand, or inventory. It's being driven a lot by macroeconomics and geopolitical events.
We are long in alumina by nearly 800,000 tons, largely because of Utkal.
Our business has demonstrated resilience in a challenging environment, delivering 1% growth in total shipments.
We are committed to defending and improving our margins.
Hindalco isn't just prepared for the future but is advancing into its next phase with scale, purpose, and confidence.
We are firmly in the first quartile, and Aditya, Mahan, Renukoot are fully in the first quartile, and Hirakud is the only one which is sort of on the right-hand side.
We don't believe that this is a time to take a forward position. So what we did for FY 2025, is that we actually hedged around 5%, taking a zero collar, with a bottom at $2,200 and a ceiling of $2,517.
This is a plant which economically simply does not make sense because of the kind of products we are making there. We don't see any future.
We are in uncharted territory right now. This is the situation. So we will see where it goes.
I really believe that the downturn is the best time to invest if you have the balance sheet strength. And that is what Hindalco has in India right now.
The integrated model of Hindalco between upstream and downstream means that some parts can have headwinds, some parts have tailwinds. And that's why when you look at our consolidated results, we are doing very well compared to most of our competitors in the industry.
The strategic rationale for building a large-scale rolling mill in the U.S. is stronger than ever before.
We are discovering more efficiency opportunities even in phase one of Bay Minette. It makes us feel comfortable that besides the strategic rationale, even the financial rationale of Bay Minette is fairly intact even with the first phase.
The underlying positivity in the business is becoming better. Unfortunately, we are having extraneous events... When you take this out and you think about the underlying health of the business, things are really looking pretty positive.
Our Q4 guidance of delivering a sustainable $525 EBITDA per ton remains intact as the market continues to recover in beverage packaging and other markets show resilience.
The onus is on us to now execute and deliver this as we said. I know that we will not get any more margin for error that I accept.
We have a P85 confidence level of bringing the project in at the $4.1 billion.
We are not going to look at any other new opportunities. So the whole management team is focused on these four projects.
We simply do not see a scenario where there will not be a settlement soon around reciprocal tariffs.
The contracts that we have entered into now are much longer-tenure contracts generally... a big bulk of the contracts have really been renewed at higher pricing right until the end of the decade.
Our long-term guidance of $600 per ton remains intact as we advance on accelerated pace in our $300 million structural cost reduction program.
The underlying EBITDA per ton would have been nearly $500, excluding the impacts of tariffs and Oswego fires.
We are not going to be going out to raise any more debt other than the already planned debt that we would have raised.
Our consolidated business segment EBITDA was up 27% year-on-year at INR 7,907 crore, whereas our overall reported EBITDA was up 24% year-on-year at INR 7,200 crore this quarter.
I think that the strength of the balance sheet will allow us to do our planned organic CapEx expansion without resorting to borrowing.
Our internal hurdle rate for any project is sort of mid-teens. So we don't do any project that does not give us a mid-teen IRR.
Hindalco has been recognized as the world's most sustainable aluminum company for the fifth year in a row, achieving highest-ever ESG scores in the S&P Global CSA ranking.
Our cost position is expected to strengthen further as we progress towards enhancing resource security through our captive coal and low-cost alumina.
We are structurally transforming our cost base to protect margins and strengthen our profitability in Novelis.