India aluminum cost reduction of 3% in Q2
Management expects costs to decline by 3% sequentially in Q2 FY24, driven by higher linkage coal share (57-60%) and lower coal prices.
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Novelis EBITDA per ton to reach $525 by Q4 FY24
Management expressed increased confidence in achieving $525/ton EBITDA by the Jan-Mar quarter, with near-term range of $450-500.
India downstream aluminum volumes to exceed 90 KT in Q2
Downstream volumes expected to cross 90 KT in Q2 FY24, with EBITDA per ton remaining well above $200.
Novelis CapEx guidance of $1.6-1.9 billion for FY24
Annual CapEx for Novelis guided at $1.6-1.9 billion; Q1 spend was $333 million, expected to ramp up.
India CapEx FY25: INR 5,500-6,000 crore
Management guided India CapEx for FY25 in the range of INR 5,500-6,000 crore.
Novelis CapEx FY25: ~$1.8 billion
Novelis CapEx for FY25 is expected at the lower end of the $1.8-2.1 billion range, around $1.8 billion.
Alumina expansion timeline: 24-26 months after contract signing
The alumina refinery expansion will take 24-26 months from breaking ground, which follows signing of a binding bauxite supply agreement with OMC.
Copper recycling project: breaking ground by October 2024
The 50 KT copper recycling project at Dahej is expected to break ground post-monsoons, around October 2024.
Novelis FY26 cost savings target raised to >$100 million
Early actions from the $300 million structural cost reduction program have accelerated savings; exit rate target increased from $75 million to over $100 million.
India aluminium downstream EBITDA per ton target of $250-300
Management targets EBITDA per ton between $250 and $300 as volumes ramp up with new FRP capacity.
India CapEx of INR 7,500-8,000 crore in FY26, INR 15,000 crore in FY27
Capital expenditure for India business guided at INR 7,500-8,000 crore this year, peaking at INR 15,000 crore next year driven by expansion projects.
Novelis EBITDA anchor of $600 per ton remains target
Despite current headwinds, management maintains high confidence in achieving $600 per ton EBITDA through cost actions and tariff mitigation.
Q3 FY24 cost of production flattish QoQ
Coal costs expected slightly up, but offset by lower input costs like caustic, furnace oil, CP coke.
Novelis CapEx guidance lowered to $1.5-$1.8 billion
CapEx expected at lower end of range; Bay Minette commissioning late calendar 2025.
India CapEx for FY24: INR 4,000-4,500 crore
Includes strategic projects; detailed FY25 guidance in February call.
Alumina refinery in Odisha: first 1M tons in 36 months
CapEx ~INR 6,000 crore for first phase; bauxite supply secured via OMC MOU.
India CapEx of ~INR 8,000 crore in FY26
Management guided for India CapEx of approximately INR 8,000 crore in FY26, up from ~INR 6,000 crore in FY25, driven by brownfield smelter expansions.
Aluminum smelter expansion to commission by October 2027
The 180kt brownfield aluminum smelter expansion at Aditya is expected to come on stream in October 2027, powered by renewable energy.
Copper smelter expansion to commission in 2029
The 280-300kt copper smelter expansion at Dahej is expected to be completed in 2029, with long-term concentrate contracts being discussed.
Novelis Bay Minette project completion in H2 CY2026
The 600kt greenfield Bay Minette project is on track for completion in the second half of calendar year 2026, with 420kt capacity contracted for beverage packaging.
Consolidated net leverage below 2x through FY29
Management committed to keeping consolidated net debt-to-EBITDA below 2x over the next four years despite $10 billion CapEx plan.
India CapEx of INR 11,000 crore in FY27
Next fiscal year CapEx expected to be around INR 11,000 crore, up from INR 8,500 crore in FY26.
Novelis structural cost reduction of $300 million by FY28 exit
Three-year program targeting permanent cost reduction through organizational restructuring and manufacturing optimization.
Oswego Hotmill startup next month
Outage impact is a timing issue; headwind this fiscal year will largely be recovered next year.
Novelis Q4 FY24 EBITDA per ton of $525
Novelis expects to deliver a sustainable $525 EBITDA per ton in Q4 FY24, driven by market recovery.
Bay Minette project cost at $4.1 billion with P85 confidence
Management is 85% confident of completing the Bay Minette project at $4.1 billion, with commissioning in H2 CY2026.
Consolidated net leverage to rise to ~3x in 2-2.5 years
Net leverage will increase to around 3x as Bay Minette spending ramps up, from below 2.5x at FY24 end.
India CapEx of INR 6,000-7,000 crore per year without borrowing
India operations can sustain CapEx of INR 6,000-7,000 crore annually from internal cash generation.
Copper EBITDA to moderate to ~INR 600 crore per quarter
Management expects quarterly copper EBITDA to be around INR 600 crore next year, down from current levels due to lower TC/RCs.
Novelis Q4 volumes to be meaningfully higher, similar to Q2 levels
Q4 volumes expected to be around Q2 levels (likely ~950 KT), driven by operating leverage and repriced beverage can contracts.
India capex of INR 8,000 crore in FY26
Capital expenditure in India for FY26 is guided at INR 8,000 crore, with peak spending in FY27-FY28.
Novelis Bay Minette project on schedule for H2 CY26 completion
The 600 KT greenfield project remains on track, with 420 KT already contracted for beverage packaging and automotive.
Novelis Oswego hot mill restart in late Q1 FY27
The Oswego hot mill is expected to restart in late Q1 of fiscal year 2027, recovering lost volumes.
Bay Minette commissioning in H2 CY26
The 600 KT greenfield rolling and recycling facility is scheduled for completion in the second half of calendar year 2026.
India CapEx of INR 10,000-12,000 crore in FY27
India capital expenditure for next fiscal year is expected to be in the range of INR 10,000-12,000 crore, similar to FY26.
Novelis long-term EBITDA per ton target of $600
Management reiterated the long-term target of $600 per ton EBITDA, supported by cost savings and Bay Minette ramp-up.
Costs expected to decline 1-2% in Q1 FY25
Management guided that aluminum costs in Q1 FY25 will likely be 1-2% lower than Q4 FY24, driven by lower coal and input costs.
Alumina sales of 160-170 KT in Q1 FY25
Management expects alumina sales of about 160-170 KT in Q1 FY25, up from 22 KT in Q4 FY24, as brownfield expansion ramps up.
Chakla coal mine box cut expected in Q3 CY2025
The Chakla coal mine box cut is expected to occur in Q3 of calendar year 2025 (Q3 FY2025), delayed from earlier guidance due to land acquisition issues.
Copper inner groove tubes project commissioning by end of CY2024
The copper inner groove tubes project is on track and expected to be commissioned by the end of calendar year 2024.
India downstream EBITDA per ton target of $250-$300 in FY26
Management guided downstream EBITDA per ton between $250 and $300 for FY26, driven by product mix improvement and new capacities.
India CapEx guidance of INR 7,500-8,000 crore for FY26
Capital expenditure for Indian operations expected to be INR 7,500-8,000 crore in FY26, up from INR 6,500 crore in FY25.
Aditya FRP to contribute 60-70 KT commercial sales in FY26
The 160 KTPA FRP plant at Aditya is expected to sell 60-70 KT in FY26, with ramp-up starting in June.
Novelis Bay Minette project on track with 90% engineering complete
The 600 KT greenfield rolling and recycling facility at Bay Minette is progressing steadily, with over 90% engineering complete.