HFCL / guidance tracker

Keep management guidance in view.

HFCL · forward-looking guidance across the available source record.

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Guidance tracker

What management said would happen.

Product revenue target of INR 800-1,000 Cr in FY25

Management expects product revenue to reach INR 800-1,000 Cr in FY25, driven by new 5G products and capacity expansion.

revenue

5G product revenue of INR 350-400 Cr in FY24

Revenue from 5G-related products (including UBR and Wi-Fi used in 5G networks) expected at INR 350-400 Cr in FY24.

revenue

EBITDA margins to sustain around current levels

Management expects EBITDA margins to remain around 16% with potential slight improvement as product mix improves.

margins

Optical fiber capacity expansion to add INR 150 Cr annualized profit

Expansion of optical fiber capacity from 10M to 33M fiber km is expected to generate additional profitability of INR 150 Cr annually at current prices.

growth

FY25 revenue growth of 25-30%

Management expects overall revenue growth of 25-30% in FY25, driven by telecom equipment and passive connectivity solutions.

revenue

Telecom equipment revenue target of INR 2,000 crore in FY25

Revenue from telecom and networking products is expected to reach approximately INR 2,000 crore in FY25, up from INR 143 crore in FY24.

revenue

Passive connectivity solutions revenue of INR 250 crore in FY25

Revenue from passive connectivity solutions is expected to be INR 250 crore in FY25, growing to INR 750 crore in 2-3 years.

revenue

Poland cable facility commercial by calendar year 2025

The new optical fiber cable facility in Poland, with a capex of INR 170 crore, is expected to be commercialized within calendar year 2025.

capex

Total revenue growth of ~25% in FY26

Management expects overall revenue to increase by about 25% in FY26 compared to FY25.

revenue

OFC revenue to double to INR 2,400 crore in FY26

Optical fiber cable revenue is expected to reach INR 2,400 crore in FY26, up from INR 1,200 crore in FY25.

revenue

Defense revenue of INR 200+ crore in FY26

Defense segment revenue is expected to be around INR 200 crore or more in FY26.

revenue

IBR cable capacity expansion to 19.01 Mn fkm by March 2026

IBR cable capacity will increase from 1.73 to 19.01 million fiber km per annum by end of FY26.

capex

New products to add ₹800-1,000 crore revenue in FY25

Management expects incremental revenue of ₹800-1,000 crore from new products (5G FWA, Wi-Fi 7, UBR) in FY25, with launches completing by Q4 FY24.

revenue

OFC capacity expansion to add ₹800-1,000 crore incremental revenue

Expansion of optical fiber capacity to 33.9 million fkm and cable to 35 million fkm will add ₹800-1,000 crore revenue at full run rate.

revenue

Revenue mix target of 70% products / 30% projects

Management targets a 70/30 revenue mix (products/projects) over the medium term, with FY25 expected at 60/40.

growth

CapEx of ₹50-75 crore for new product manufacturing

To support new product revenues, additional CapEx of ₹50-75 crore is planned, partly to avail PLI incentives of ₹600 crore.

capex

Revenue target of INR 10,000 crore in three years

Management reiterated its aspiration to reach INR 10,000 crore revenue in three years, driven by telecom, defense, and export growth.

revenue

OFC market recovery from Q4 FY25

Management expects OFC demand to pick up from Q4 FY25, with capacity utilization improving from 45% to 80% or more.

growth

BharatNet Phase 3 awards expected by Q4 FY25

Management expects BharatNet contracts to be awarded in Q4 FY25, with HFCL targeting INR 5,000-8,000 crore opportunity.

expansion

Defense revenue to commence from FY26

Electronic fuzes and other defense products under trial are expected to generate revenue from next financial year.

growth

Revenue growth of 20% for FY26

Management reiterated 20% revenue growth guidance for the full year, expecting strong H2 performance.

revenue

EBITDA margin to sustain around 19%

Management expects to maintain current EBITDA margin levels in the next two quarters of FY26.

margins

Defense revenue of INR 500 crore in FY27

Defense revenue expected to exceed INR 500 crore in the next financial year, driven by new products and orders.

growth

OFC capacity expansion to 42.36 million fiber km p.a. by June 2026

High-fiber count cable capacity expansion from 1.73 to 19.01 million fiber km p.a., total OFC capacity reaching 42.36 million fiber km p.a.

capex

OFC demand recovery from Q1 FY25, significant from Q2

Management expects global OFC demand to improve from Q1 FY25, with significant uptick from Q2, driven by US BEAD subsidies and BharatNet.

revenue

Product-to-project mix target of 70:30 by FY25

Aims to achieve at least 70% revenue from products and 30% from EPC projects in the next financial year.

growth

Telecom equipment revenue to exceed INR 1,000 Cr in FY25

Indigenously developed equipment revenue expected to be significantly more than INR 1,000 crore in FY25, driven by 5G orders and BharatNet routers.

revenue

PLI benefits to start from FY25

PLI scheme benefits for telecom equipment will begin from the coming financial year 2024-25.

other

Telecom product revenue target of ~₹350-400 crore in Q4 FY25

Management expects telecom product revenue to reach ₹350-400 crore in Q4, implying a sequential improvement from Q3 levels.

revenue

PLI claim of ₹40-50 crore expected from next fiscal

PLI benefits for telecom equipment are expected to be claimed from FY26, with an estimated amount of ₹40-50 crore for the full year.

other

Target product mix of 70:30 (products:turnkey) over time

Management aims for 70% revenue from products and 30% from turnkey projects, though profitable turnkey projects may alter the mix.

growth

OFC capacity expansion completion by March 2025

Capacity expansion for IBR cables in Hyderabad is expected to be completed by March 31, 2025, more than doubling capacity.

capex

OFC revenue to reach INR 3,500 crore in FY27

Management expects OFC segment revenue to cross INR 3,500 crore in the next financial year, up from an estimated INR 2,400 crore in FY26.

revenue

Defense revenue of INR 400-500 crore in FY27

Defense line of products is expected to contribute INR 400-500 crore in revenue next year, driven by fuze, radar, and ammunition orders.

revenue

O&M revenue to reach INR 400-500 crore in 2-3 years

Operations and maintenance revenue is expected to grow to INR 400-500 crore per annum within 2-3 years, starting with Army NFS O&M of INR 170 crore per year from April 2026.

revenue

PCS business to add INR 400-500 crore revenue over FY26-27

Pre-Connected Solutions for data centers is expected to contribute INR 400-500 crore of additional revenues over the next two financial years.

revenue

Telecom equipment revenue target of INR 2,000 crore in FY25

Management expects telecom equipment revenue to surge from INR 150 crore in FY24 to INR 2,000 crore in FY25, backed by an order book of INR 1,700 crore already in hand.

revenue

OFC revenue target of INR 2,000 crore in FY25

Optical fiber cable revenue is expected to recover to over INR 2,000 crore in FY25, driven by demand revival in India and global markets.

revenue

Turnkey services revenue of INR 1,750-2,000 crore in FY25

System integration/turnkey revenue is expected to be around INR 1,750-2,000 crore, supported by existing orders of INR 1,200 crore and recurring business.

revenue

CapEx of INR 900 crore over two years

Total capital expenditure of approximately INR 900 crore planned for FY25 and FY26, including the Poland OFC plant and other expansions.

capex

Revenue growth of 25-30% in FY26

Overall revenue expected to grow 25-30% in FY26, with major growth starting from Q2.

revenue

Optical fiber cable revenue to double in FY26

Revenue from optical fiber cable and associated business expected to grow by ~100% in FY26, driven by data center and export demand.

revenue

EBITDA margin to remain stable around FY24 levels

Management expects EBITDA margins to remain stable around FY24 levels (approx. 12-13%), not FY25 levels.

margins

Capex of INR 138 crore for fiber cable expansion

Capex of INR 138 crore planned for expanding optical fiber cable capacity, with orders placed and LCs opened.

capex

Revenue growth of 20-25% in FY27

Management expects revenue to grow 20-25% year-on-year in FY27, driven by strong order book and capacity expansion.

revenue

EBITDA margin expansion of 3-4% in FY27

Blended EBITDA margin expected to improve by 300-400 bps in FY27 due to better product mix and reduction in EPC losses.

margins

Data center interconnect revenue of ₹400 Cr in FY27

Data center interconnect solutions expected to contribute at least ₹400 Cr revenue in FY27, scaling to ₹800 Cr in FY28.

revenue

Capex of ₹600 Cr in FY27 and ₹350 Cr in FY28

Capital expenditure for FY27 estimated at ₹600 Cr (including preform, defense, and capacity expansion) and ₹350 Cr for FY28.

capex