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Quarter read
What the record says.
HDFC Bank's Q4 FY25 results reflect steady execution of its post-merger strategy. The credit-deposit ratio has been reduced to ~96% from ~110% at merger, with deposits growing faster than loans. Net interest margin remained stable in a narrow band of 3.4-3.5%, with core NIM at 3.46%. The bank maintained ROA around 1.9%, consistent with recent quarters. Management highlighted a reorganization of the asset side to drive synergies, particularly in rural and agriculture lending. Guidance points to loan growth at market rates in FY26, with CD ratio expected to reach pre-merger levels (85-90%) by FY27. Cost discipline continues, with cost-to-assets at ~1.9%. Key risks include potential margin compression from rapid repo rate cuts and global trade uncertainty impacting corporate demand. The bank remains cautious on pricing, avoiding aggressive competition in corporate loans and non-retail deposits.
Colored figures show movement against the previous available record.
Guidance to track
- Management reiterated that the credit-deposit ratio will decline to pre-merger levels of 85-90% by FY27, with a less steep adjustment in FY26.
- The bank expects to grow loans at the market rate in FY26, subject to appropriate pricing and credit quality.
- Management expects cost-to-assets to improve further as productivity gains from branch investments and technology materialize.
Risks flagged
- If repo rates are cut quickly, asset yields reprice faster than deposit costs, potentially squeezing NIMs in the short term.
- Management noted that global trade tariffs and volatility may impact corporate investment and loan demand, leading to a wait-and-watch stance.
- The bank remains ~1% short on priority sector lending sub-targets for small/marginal farmers and weaker sections, requiring inorganic purchases or RIDF deployment.
Key quotes
- Our credit deposit ratio has been brought down from the highs at the time of merger, which was at about 110%, to around 96% as of March 2025.
- If the ROA tends for better cost of credit or better margin that comes through and for cost efficiency and so on, to some extent, there is always a reinvestment opportunity.
- Growth does not mean our losses or loss ratios will go up. I think it should be more or less in a range bound because of the target segment that we would still like to because there is opportunity, there's a runway.
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