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HDFC Bank reported a 33.5% YoY PAT growth to INR 164 billion, driven by strong advances growth of 4.9% QoQ and stable NIM at 3.4%. However, deposit growth lagged at 1.9% QoQ, with retail deposits growing 2.9% while non-retail deposits declined. The LDR rose above 110%, and LCR fell to 110%, signaling funding constraints. Management emphasized a focus on profitable growth, aiming to improve CASA ratio and replace borrowings with deposits. They guided for deposit growth to outpace loan growth by 300-400 bps to reduce LDR. Key risks include persistent liquidity tightness, elevated LDR, and slower-than-expected branch expansion (target of ~1,000 vs earlier 1,500). The bank plans to enhance cross-sell metrics disclosure to track synergy realization from the HDFC merger.
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Guidance to track
- Management expects deposit growth to exceed loan growth by 300-400 basis points to reduce the LDR over time.
- The bank aims to reduce cost-to-income from ~40% to mid-30% over the medium term through digital efficiencies and margin improvement.
- Revised target from 1,500 to ~1,000 branches for FY24, with 570 branches in pipeline.
- Management will start reporting penetration of savings accounts, credit cards, and consumer durable loans among new mortgage customers.
Risks flagged
- LDR above 110% and LCR at 110% limit balance sheet flexibility; system liquidity turned negative for the first time in 3.5 years.
- Deposit growth of 1.9% QoQ lagged loan growth of 4.9%, forcing reliance on borrowings and investment sales.
- FY24 branch additions likely to be ~1,000 vs original target of 1,500, potentially limiting deposit mobilization.
- CASA ratio declined and term deposit rates remain elevated; management did not commit to a timeline for margin improvement.
Key quotes
- We do need deposits to be kicking in for the loans to be operating.
- We are not caught up and we are not into one level of rate of growth as such... We are focused on returns.
- The deposit rate of growth should outpace the loan rate of growth... at least 300 basis points-400 basis points higher.
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