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A source-linked quarter view: reported numbers, management language, guidance, and the risks that should carry forward.
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Revenue
₹391 Cr
verified against source
Revenue YoY
10.4%
reported change
EBITDA
₹120 Cr
latest reported figure
Source
screener in
record provenance
Actual signal trajectory
Where this quarter sits.
Quarter read
What the record says.
Happy Forgings delivered a strong Q3 FY26 with revenue of ₹391 crore (+10.4% YoY), EBITDA of ₹120 crore (+18.7% YoY), and PAT of ₹79 crore (+22.3% YoY). EBITDA margin expanded to 30.8%, a new high, driven by favorable product mix and operating leverage. Domestic CV and farm segments grew ~22% in value, while exports remained subdued due to tariff uncertainty and weak global demand. Management guided for FY27 capex of ~₹400 crore (excluding solar) and expects incremental annual business of ₹800 crore to commence from FY27, with 80-85% execution by FY28. A new 10,000-ton forging press will be commissioned in Q4 FY26. Risks include potential steel price increases and slower-than-expected export recovery.
Colored figures show movement against the previous available record.
Guidance to track
- Management expects total capex for FY27 to be close to ₹400 crore, excluding solar project; including solar it will be ~₹480 crore.
- New and incremental peak annual business of approximately ₹800 crore expected to commence from FY27, scaling over 2-3 years, with 80-85% execution by FY28.
- Management expects EBITDA margins to remain in a sustained range of 29-31% over the medium term, with potential improvement from export mix and solar project.
- Captive solar plant (80 acres) expected to be operational from Q3 FY28, reducing power cost by ₹25-30 crore per annum on full utilization.
Risks flagged
- Alloy steel prices are expected to rise by ₹3-4/kg, and while 85% of business has pass-through, there is a lag of 1 month (domestic) to 1 quarter (export), which could temporarily compress margins.
- Direct exports remained subdued due to weak global demand and tariff uncertainties. Management noted only early signs of stabilization, and a meaningful turnaround is not guaranteed.
- Management could not provide a clear view on the effective duty rate under Section 232 for exports to the US, stating it depends on customer import classification and remains uncertain.
- The heavy component capex (large crankshafts) will only start contributing meaningfully from FY28-FY29, with real marketing beginning around June-July 2026, posing execution risk.
Key quotes
- Profitability growth outpaced the revenue growth with PAT increasing to 22.3% year-on-year. This was driven by robust value added as reflected in higher gross margin and operational efficiencies.
- We have visibility of new and incremental peak annual business of approximately 800 crores expected to commence from FI27 onwards which will scale up over the next two to three years.
- On the CV side there are excess inventories which are in place. So the flow of new businesses on the CV side is very less post this correction probably we'll have to see because definitely there'll be shift from China and we can see more opportunity on the CV side as well.
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