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GIPCL reported a transformative year with the 600 MW Khavda solar project now fully operational, achieving a CUF of 33% in Q4 FY26 vs 23% in Q3. The company guided to ~420 cr revenue from this project in FY27 and expects total EBITDA to reach ~950-1,000 cr once the 500 MW solar expansion is fully commissioned. Management confirmed the 500 MW project will be commissioned in phases starting Q3 FY27, with full-year benefits from FY28. The 750 MW lignite thermal expansion is under tendering, with capex of ~6,000 cr and a 4-year gestation. Key risks include potential PBT pressure in FY27 due to initial teething losses from the 500 MW project and stranded gas assets (310 MW) that remain idle with no revival in sight. The company plans to repurpose the gas plant site for battery storage (120 MW BESS) and is evaluating a 200 MW additional solar capacity at Khavda.
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Guidance to track
- Management expects total EBITDA to reach 950-1,000 cr in FY27, driven by full-year contribution from 600 MW Khavda and partial contribution from 500 MW.
- First 200 MW to be commissioned post-monsoon (Q3 FY27), followed by 200 MW and 100 MW in subsequent months, subject to PGCIL evacuation readiness.
- Tendering underway; project to be commissioned in 3-4 years (by FY31-32). Debt-equity ratio of 80:20, with equity funded via internal accruals or promoter infusion.
- Approval received from GUVNL; project to be commissioned in ~1 year. Revenue model based on fixed charges and per-unit tariff of ~6 rupees.
Risks flagged
- Initial teething problems for the 500 MW solar project could result in losses similar to the ~220 cr loss booked for 600 MW in FY26, impacting FY27 profitability.
- 310 MW gas-based plant remains idle for 6+ years due to high gas prices. Management is considering write-off or repurposing, but no concrete timeline given.
- PGCIL evacuation line not fully ready; management expects readiness by end of monsoon, but any further delay could push commissioning beyond Q3 FY27.
- 6,000 cr capex requires ~1,200 cr equity. Management was non-committal on funding source, leaving open the possibility of equity issuance or promoter infusion.
Key quotes
- We are top in the merit order. So generation wise and power evacuation wise oft there is no issue.
- The gas stations looking at the current geopolitical situation I think it is not going to be revived now. So we are trying to put the gas capacity in the existing this therma this gas based station location.
- We are thinking to add certain capacity of solar in next couple of years around 200 to 300 megawatt but we will see how we are going to get the land.
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