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Revenue
₹32,755 Cr
verified against source
Revenue YoY
-1%
reported change
EBITDA
Pending
latest reported figure
Source
screener in
record provenance
Actual signal trajectory
Where this quarter sits.
Quarter read
What the record says.
GAIL reported a strong Q1 FY24 with consolidated PAT surging 150% YoY to INR 1,793 crore, driven by a sharp recovery in gas marketing spreads, lower inventory losses, and improved transmission tariff realization. Gas transmission volume rose to 116 MMSCMD (up 8% QoQ) and management expects to reach 123 MMSCMD by year-end, with a medium-term target of 138-140 MMSCMD. The petrochemical segment remained under pressure due to weak polymer prices and high gas costs, but losses are expected to narrow as cheaper LNG is sourced. Management maintained its FY24 gas marketing margin guidance of INR 3,500 crore and guided for transmission revenue growth of 6-7%. Key risks include further reduction in APM gas allocation for compressors and delayed tariff revision from PNGRB.
Colored figures show movement against the previous available record.
Guidance to track
- Management expects transmission volume to grow 6-7% from current 116 MMSCMD to 123 MMSCMD by March 2024, driven by petchem ramp-up, CGD growth, and restoration of disrupted pipelines.
- Management reiterated its guidance of earning at least INR 3,500 crore in gas marketing margin for FY24, supported by Q1 margin of INR 1,000 crore.
- Planned capital expenditure includes INR 4,000 crore on pipelines, INR 3,200 crore on petrochemicals, INR 700 crore operational, INR 200 crore CGD, and INR 2,500 crore equity contributions.
- Over the next 2-3 years, GAIL expects transmission volumes to reach 138-140 MMSCMD, driven by new refinery demand, CGD expansion, and pipeline commissioning.
Risks flagged
- Management noted that APM gas allocation for transmission compressors has fallen from 0.6 to 0.4 MMSCMD and is expected to decline further, increasing fuel costs.
- Despite improving volumes, weak polymer prices and high gas costs mean the petrochemical segment may remain loss-making; breakeven requires LNG prices below $10/MMBtu.
- GAIL's representation for higher integrated tariff (submitted INR 68.57 vs approved INR 58.61) faces a hearing only in November 2023, delaying potential revenue upside.
- Q1 included INR 233 crore of one-offs (costly gas and arbitration provision); while management says these won't repeat, similar items could arise from volatile gas prices.
Key quotes
- We expect to earn marketing margin of approximate INR 3,500 crore, today we maintain the same, that at least we will earn marketing margin of INR 3,500 crore in financial year 2023/2024, as informed earlier.
- This segment is going to give you significant part of revenue and profit going forward, right from now.
- We intend to bring 100% volume to India.
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