Geopolitical tensions and fuel price impact on CV portfolio
West Asia conflict could lead to diesel price hikes >10%, stressing the 12% CV portfolio due to lag in freight rate adjustment.
EQUITASSMALLFINANCEBANK / bear-case history
Track the concerns that keep returning.
Equitas Small Finance · risk themes across the available quarters.
Research layer active
Bear-case history
Risks carried through the record.
medium
NIM compression from deposit rate hikes
March 2026 rate hikes on savings and term deposits will increase cost of funds, pressuring NIM from Q1 FY27 onwards.
Seasonal slippage in H1 FY27
Q1 and Q2 are seasonally weak for collections, likely leading to higher GNP slippage and income reversals, impacting NIM and credit cost.
Potential RBI rate hikes and systemic deposit competition
If RBI raises rates or deposit competition intensifies, cost of funds could rise further, though management believes ability to pass on costs to borrowers.