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CreditAccess Grameen delivered a strong Q4 FY26, with PAT surging over 6x YoY to ₹340 crore and ROA reaching 4.4%. The AUM grew 14% YoY and 11.4% QoQ, driven by robust disbursement growth of 28.4% YoY. The recovery from the MFI credit cycle is evident: gross NPA (60 DPD) improved to 3.17% and PAR accretion rates have normalized. Management guided FY27 AUM growth of 20-25%, with credit cost declining to 3-4% and ROA of 4-4.8%. The retail finance portfolio (18.1% of AUM) is scaling rapidly, leveraging the group lending ecosystem. Key risks include prolonged West Asia crisis impacting rural demand and potential inflationary pressures on operating costs.
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Guidance to track
- Management guided AUM growth of 20-25% for FY27, with MFI growing 10-12% and retail finance driving the balance.
- Net interest margin guided at 12.8-13% for FY27, down from Q4 FY26 exit of 14.2% due to expected pricing pass-through.
- Credit cost guided at 3-4% for FY27, down from 6.74% in FY26, reflecting normalized asset quality.
- Return on assets guided at 4-4.8% and return on equity at 16-20% for FY27.
Risks flagged
- Management flagged potential supply disruptions (fuel/gas) from the West Asia crisis, which could affect rural customers and increase credit costs.
- Management built in higher cost-to-income ratio guidance (33-35%) due to anticipated inflation from global issues, which could compress margins.
- Analyst raised competition in Tamil Nadu; management acknowledged but downplayed, citing existing customer base and technology investments.
- Long-term growth ambition of 20%+ AUM CAGR may be constrained by the regulatory requirement to keep MFI below 60% of total portfolio.
Key quotes
- Tested by cycles, strength and by purpose.
- We are no longer in the business of financing only one woman per household. We are building the capability to be the financial life cycle partner of the entire household.
- We've been tested. We've been honest with our challenges and we've come through with stronger business, a more resilient risk framework, a clear strategic identity and a much larger opportunity in front of us than behind us.
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