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Revenue
₹37,825 Cr
verified against source
Revenue YoY
—
reported change
EBITDA
Pending
latest reported figure
Source
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record provenance
Actual signal trajectory
Where this quarter sits.
Quarter read
What the record says.
Coal India reported a mixed Q4 FY25 with production shortfalls at SECL and CCL due to land acquisition and clearance issues, while overall demand remained robust. Management guided for FY26 production of 875 million tons and offtake of 900 million tons, implying a ~3% growth. E-auction premiums normalized to 40-43% in Q4, with expectations of settling in the 30-40% range. The company is focusing on expanding first-mile connectivity (targeting 100 rakes/day by Q2) and increasing non-power linkages. Risks include rising competition from captive/commercial mines (projected 320 MT by FY30) and potential wage revision impact post-June 2026. The Supreme Court tax on minerals case remains a contingent liability (~INR 35,000 crore).
Colored figures show movement against the previous available record.
Guidance to track
- Management guided for production of 875 MT and offtake of 900 MT in FY26, implying ~3% growth.
- Management expects to increase FMC rakes per day from 87.1 to 100 by Q2 FY26 as new silos come online.
- Management expects e-auction premiums to settle in the 30-40% range, in line with historical averages excluding abnormal years.
- Management indicated regular mining CapEx of ~INR 20,000 crore annually, excluding diversification projects.
Risks flagged
- Captive and commercial coal production is projected to reach 320 MT by FY30, potentially eating into Coal India's market share.
- The Supreme Court case on tax on minerals could result in a liability of ~INR 35,000 crore, though management says no final order yet.
- Non-executive wage revision due in June 2026 could sharply increase employee costs, with no clarity on FSA price hikes to offset.
- SECL and CCL faced production shortfalls due to land acquisition and clearance issues, impacting overall volume targets.
Key quotes
- We are expecting a growth of around 20% or so in this FY as compared to last year.
- If we see the historical premiums of Coal India Limited, then normally they have hovered around 35%-40% when the spot markets were there.
- The entire coal is going to come and eat into Coal India's share because that is how the mines have been auctioned.
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