Land acquisition delays at MCL
MCL's Basundhara coal field faced a 26-day stoppage due to land compensation disputes, impacting production.
COALINDIA / bear-case history
Track the concerns that keep returning.
Coalindia · risk themes across the available quarters.
Research layer active
Bear-case history
Risks carried through the record.
medium
Railway rake shortages in SECL and MCL
Management acknowledged daily rake shortages of 5 rakes in SECL and MCL, constraining dispatches.
E-auction premium volatility
E-auction premiums have been volatile, ranging from 50-60% to 90%, dependent on demand and import prices.
No near-term FSA price hike for power sector
Management ruled out any FSA price hike for the power sector in the next 7-8 months, limiting revenue growth.
Declining e-auction premiums
E-auction premiums have fallen sharply from 116% in Q3 to 36-48% in Jan-Feb, which could pressure realizations if the trend continues.
SCCL production shortfall
SCCL is lagging its target by 8-9 MT due to land issues and EC clearances, posing a risk to overall production targets.
Accounting policy change impact on tax
Change in shipping activity adjustment accounting may lead to tax implications, though management expects limited net impact.
Receivables buildup
Trade receivables increased from INR 13,000 crore to INR 17,000 crore, driven by delayed payments from power utilities, which could strain cash flows.
Competition from captive and commercial mines
Captive and commercial coal production is projected to reach 320 MT by FY30, potentially eating into Coal India's market share.
Supreme Court tax on minerals contingent liability
The Supreme Court case on tax on minerals could result in a liability of ~INR 35,000 crore, though management says no final order yet.
Wage revision cost increase from June 2026
Non-executive wage revision due in June 2026 could sharply increase employee costs, with no clarity on FSA price hikes to offset.
Production shortfalls at SECL and CCL
SECL and CCL faced production shortfalls due to land acquisition and clearance issues, impacting overall volume targets.