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What the record says.
Bajaj Housing Finance reported a steady Q4 FY26 with AUM crossing INR 1.4 lakh crore, growing 23% YoY. PAT grew 14% to INR 669 crore (20% normalized), impacted by a one-time tax benefit in the base. Asset quality remained healthy with GNPA stable at 27 bps and net NPA at 11 bps. Net interest margin compressed 12 bps sequentially to 3.8% due to lower acquisition pricing and portfolio mix shift. Management guided for FY27 ROA towards the upper end of the 2%-2.2% medium-term range, assuming no policy rate change. Key risks include elevated money market rates compressing spreads further and competitive intensity from banks driving higher BT-out rates. The company expects OpEx efficiency and lower credit costs to partially offset margin compression.
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Guidance to track
- Management expects ROA to be at the upper end of the medium-term guidance range, assuming no policy rate change, with margin compression offset by OpEx efficiency and lower credit costs.
- The Sambhav business is on track to achieve monthly disbursements of over INR 600 crore within the next 12 months.
- Net interest margin in Q1 FY27 is expected to be broadly stable versus Q4 FY26, with a slight compression possible due to yield pressure.
- Management will provide a detailed assessment for FY27 along with Q1 FY27 results, given macro uncertainty.
Risks flagged
- If money market rates remain elevated without a policy rate hike, the company's ability to pass on costs is limited, leading to further spread compression.
- BT-out rates remained elevated in Q4 despite expectations of stabilization, driven by aggressive pricing from public and private sector banks.
- The home loan share of total assets has been contracting, though still above the regulatory minimum of 50%. Further decline could attract regulatory scrutiny.
- Global geopolitical and macro factors could affect policy rates and economic growth, potentially impacting loan growth and credit costs.
Key quotes
- We consider irrational competitive activity as a feature, not as a novelty. We prepare for that scenario.
- We should be towards the upper end of the medium-term guidance, may not beat that.
- If there is a policy rate hike, it has never happened that there is no pass-through has happened. The pass-through may not be full, but it is not a scenario where banks or anyone will not pass through.
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