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What the record says.
Axis Bank reported a steady Q4 FY25 with core operating profit up 11% YoY and NIM improving 4 bps QoQ to 3.97%. PAT was flat YoY at INR 7,117 crore, impacted by higher provisions and PSLC costs. Deposit growth picked up 7% QoQ, driven by strong NED inflows, while loan growth remained modest at 8% YoY. Management highlighted stabilization in credit card delinquencies but cautioned that personal loan asset quality may take a few more quarters to improve. The bank tightened classification norms for certain accounts, which could marginally increase slippages in FY26. Key risks include prolonged normalization in unsecured retail asset quality and potential margin compression from the rate cut cycle. Guidance remains qualitative, with no specific FY26 targets provided.
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Guidance to track
- Due to tightened classification norms for certain accounts (e.g., OTS), slippages in FY26 could be marginally higher than FY25.
- Underwriting corrections on personal loans are showing early positive reads, but full stabilization will take a few more quarters.
- Management aims to retain as much of the 18 bps cushion above the through-cycle NIM of 3.8% as possible, using mix and repricing levers.
Risks flagged
- Management noted that personal loan delinquencies may take a few more quarters to stabilize, despite early positive signals from underwriting changes.
- With repo-linked loans repricing faster than deposits, NIMs could face pressure in a rate cut cycle, though management expects to offset via mix and savings rate cuts.
- The bank incurred INR 591 crore in PSLC purchase costs in Q4 to meet PSL shortfalls, and similar costs may recur in FY26 due to MFI and Gold Loan classification issues.
- Despite QoQ improvement, deposit growth remains below the industry average, and management did not provide a timeline for closing the gap.
Key quotes
- We have also demonstrated a controlled increase in cost of funds over the last eight quarters, with only seven basis points increase in the last four quarters.
- We have said the way we look to we are getting more stringent on how we classify accounts, not upgrade accounts.
- I think this is the last set of changes that we are likely to see. Post this, we're largely done.
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