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What the record says.
Axis Bank reported a steady Q3 FY26 with PAT of INR 6,490 crore, up 28% QoQ and 3% YoY. Deposits grew 15% YoY, outpacing loan growth of 14% YoY. NIM compressed 9 bps QoQ to 3.64% due to mix shift toward wholesale and liability mix. Retail asset quality is stabilizing, with credit card and personal loan portfolios showing improvement. Management reiterated its through-cycle NIM target of 3.8% and expects deposit growth to converge with credit growth over 15-18 months. Key risks include competitive pressure on deposit costs and potential margin headwinds from further rate cuts.
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Guidance to track
- Management reaffirmed the 3.8% NIM target over the cycle, despite 125 bps of repo rate cuts.
- CEO expects deposit growth to stabilize at similar levels as credit growth within 15-18 months, aided by sustained liquidity infusion.
- Management expects to rebalance the loan mix to 58-60% retail, 23-25% wholesale, and balance SME over the planning horizon.
Risks flagged
- Non-retail term deposit rates have started to inch up in Q4, potentially limiting further decline in cost of deposits.
- Full pass-through of the 25 bps repo rate cut in Q4 will pressure NIMs, partially offset by deposit repricing.
- New LCR rules from April 2026 are broadly neutral, but changes in deposit composition could alter outflow rates.
Key quotes
- We remain confident that we will get to the 3.8 over the duration of reprice of our assets and liabilities.
- I'm hoping that in the next 15-18 months, the deposit growth will stabilize at similar levels as credit growth because there is no option.
- Retail asset quality is stabilizing as evidenced by the credit card portfolio has seen a YoY improvement across gross slippages, net slippages, gross credit cost, and net credit cost.
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