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Axis Bank reported a steady Q3 FY24 with PAT of INR 6,071 crore, up 4% QoQ, driven by robust loan growth (23% YoY gross of IBPC) and fee income (29% YoY). NIM declined 10bps QoQ to 4.01% due to rising deposit costs, but 9M NIM improved 13bps YoY to 4.08%. Asset quality improved with GNPA at 1.58% (down 80bps YoY) and net credit cost at 0.28%. Management flagged tight liquidity as a constraint on deposit growth, expecting system credit growth to converge to ~13%. They maintained medium-term guidance of 4-6pp faster loan growth than industry. Key risk: sustained deposit cost pressure could compress NIMs further if loan growth outpaces deposit mobilization.
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Guidance to track
- Management expects system credit growth to moderate towards deposit growth of around 13% due to tight liquidity.
- Axis Bank maintains its medium-term guidance of growing loans 4-6 percentage points faster than the industry, though not on a quarter-to-quarter basis.
- The bank expects to complete data migration and system integration of the acquired Citibank business by end of first half of FY25.
- Management reiterated that the bank does not intend to raise equity capital, citing organic CET1 accretion of 39bps in 9M FY24.
Risks flagged
- Tight liquidity and rising deposit costs could limit the bank's ability to grow loans at the desired pace, potentially compressing NIMs.
- Analyst noted that 60% of incremental deposits came from non-retail term deposits, which are more fickle and could distort cost of funds.
- Management acknowledged that recoveries from written-off accounts will reduce and credit costs will move up from current low levels.
- Prolonged tight liquidity could lead to asset quality stress, though management sees no signs yet and is monitoring closely.
Key quotes
- We have said that we'll maintain the 400-600 basis point differential between industry and our growth rate. Don't hold us quarter to quarter, but yes, in the medium term, we believe that we can maintain it, and we are not changing it.
- We are currently in an environment where we think we will organically continue to accrete capital. ... we still categorically maintain we do not need capital at the current stage and will not be raising.
- In a deposit-constrained environment, we will obviously have a waterfall, and in that waterfall, we will push businesses which give us a better return.
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