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Axis Bank reported a steady Q2 FY26 with PAT of INR 5,090 crore, though net interest margin declined to 3.73% due to rate cuts. Advances grew 12% YoY and deposits 11% YoY, with market share gains. Credit card portfolio crossed 15 million cards and UPI market share exceeded 35%. Asset quality showed stabilization in unsecured retail, with gross slippages declining sequentially. A one-time standard asset provision of INR 1,231 crore was made for discontinued crop loan variants, which is non-cash and reversible. Management guided NIM to bottom in Q3 and reiterated medium-term advances growth of 300 bps above industry. Key risk: further one-off regulatory provisions could emerge, as seen this quarter.
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Guidance to track
- Assuming no further rate cuts, net interest margin is expected to bottom in Q3, with through-cycle stance at 3.8%.
- Over 3-5 years with FY26 as base, advances are expected to grow 300 bps faster than industry.
- The provision is static and will be written back when loans are closed or by 31 March 2028, whichever is earlier.
Risks flagged
- Management acknowledged past one-offs and cannot guarantee no future regulatory surprises, despite conservative stance.
- NIM declined 7 bps QoQ to 3.73%; further rate cuts could delay margin bottoming beyond Q3.
- Government deposit balances continue to decline due to efficiency improvements, with no timeline for offset.
- While initial assessment shows negligible impact, final circular could require higher provisions if PDs are elevated.
Key quotes
- This is not an asset quality problem. This is a PSL classification question, not an income recognition or an asset classification question.
- We do not need equity capital for either pillar. We may opportunistically evaluate Tier 2 and AT1 instruments based on market conditions.
- We wish we had better answers for some of the one-offs, but hopefully, there won't be other one-offs as we look into the future.
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