Global uncertainty and macro headwinds
Management cited global disruptions (West Asia conflict, inflation) as key risks that could impact collections and growth.
ARMANFIN / bear-case history
Track the concerns that keep returning.
Arman Financial Services · risk themes across the available quarters.
Research layer active
Bear-case history
Risks carried through the record.
high
Elevated operating costs may persist
Despite targeting opex reduction, costs remain high due to new credit model and CGFMU premiums; achieving 7% target is uncertain.
Potential NIM compression from rising borrowing costs
Analyst raised concern about fixed-rate book and rising MCLR; management acknowledged risk but expects stable costs due to improved performance.
High rejection rates may impact growth
Management noted elevated rejection rates under new underwriting model, which could limit disbursement growth if not managed.