AJANTPHARM / Q4-FY24 / claim-ledger

Audit the questions that mattered.

Ajanta Pharma · Analyst questions, management answers, and the quality of the response where the ledger is available.

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PositiveQ4-FY24 · 2024-05-14Back to quarter ↗

Questions audited

12

Answered directly

92%

Numeric claims

3

Consistency

contradicted

Question ledger

What was answered, and how?

Rashmi Shetty · Dolat Capital

direct

Guidance for branded and US market mid-teen growth and Red Sea risks.

So the growth which we are anticipating is assuming the growth in various markets continue and we'll get the tailwind. But it's a factor of increasing the market share in the products we have already in the market. There are a number of new product launches which are scheduled during the year, and there'll be some increase in the field size.

Rashmi Shetty · Dolat Capital

direct

Guidance for India market growth in FY25.

We are basically aiming to grow at least 200 basis points, if possible, 300 basis points, faster than the IPM growth. If the IPM grows at 8%, which is what the forecast is, as we speak, then we are looking at a low double-digit growth between 10% and 11%.

Rashmi Shetty · Dolat Capital

direct

EBITDA margin outlook for FY25 given Red Sea issues.

See, but as far as the Red Sea issue or the freight increase is concerned, I think, if it remains at the level where it is today in the month of April, I think the overall increase over a previous year will be about INR 30 crore. That will be the impact. But with that INR 30 crore impact, we should be able to absorb that impact, and we should be able to deliver 28% EBITDA.

Rashmi Shetty · Dolat Capital

direct

US price erosion outlook and whether guidance is conservative.

See, our guidance is based on two factors. One is that what will be the price erosion for the existing product portfolio? We are estimating high single digits, maybe 8% to 10% price erosion. We have about six new products launched planned for the next year, assuming we get the approval from the FDA as per the timeline.

Aman Kumar Singh · Research desk

direct

Can EBITDA and PAT margins return to FY21 levels?

So I think, 21 was an aberration. The margins of not only Ajanta, most of the companies, Pharma Companies, were elevated because of the COVID, where the expenses reduced significantly, and that improved the margins of Ajanta and number of companies. So I think those margins should be taken as an aberration.

Tushar Manudhane · Motilal Oswal Financial Services

partial

Outlook for India pharma industry growth over next 2-3 years.

It would be very hard to comment on two, three years. You know, but for the coming year, the IMS, the IQVIA forecast is in the range of around 8% to 9%. And, so that is the forecast that we have got from IQVIA, which is what is a respected agency for all of us.

Tushar Manudhane · Motilal Oswal Financial Services

direct

Asia market growth drivers and outlook for next couple of years.

So again, the story remains the same, Tushar. We've got good product launches which came, we increased our market share. Clinically, we are executing very well. So clearly, a result of good product selection, good strategy in marketing, good understanding of the marketing landscape, good connect with the customers, and a very good execution.

Harsh Bhatia · Bandhan AMC

direct

Sales force addition in international markets and total MR count.

That's right. So we are talking on the current year, which we have about 4,900 of MRs. Overall, we are looking to add about 3%-4%, MR, and most of it will happen... Not most of it, all of it will happen in the international markets, so Africa and Asia.

Harsh Bhatia · Bandhan AMC

direct

Cardiology performance in Q4 and comparison to market growth.

Overall, in cardiology for the last financial year, we have grown at 11%, whereas the segment growth is 10% if I normalize my metaxalone price. If you remember, we have taken an over 18% price reduction in metaxalone, which is the largest brand for us, and that impact brought the growth down to 4% only. But if I normalize that price, our growth would have been 11%.

Bino Pathiparampil · Elara Capital

direct

R&D plan for US market and number of NDAs planned per year.

We are looking to file 8-12 NDAs in the current year coming in FY 2025.

Vishal Manchanda · Systematix

partial

Compounded price erosion in US over last 4-5 years.

I won't have that number right away with me. As you know, I think last year the erosions were 20% and upwards, 20% to 25%, just a year after the COVID. Currently, we are seeing the price erosions to be in the range of 8% to 11%.

Forum Parekh · Mirae Asset Sharekhan

direct

Why EBITDA margin guidance is flat despite good outlook.

So a few factors. One is that, the expenses are going up, and the second is we've factored in about INR 30 crore-INR 35 crore for the current, prevailing prices for the freight, so that will eat up a little bit. There'll be increase in the manpower, as I just told you, we are adding 200 people.