Prolonged Middle East conflict disrupting exports and raw material supply
The West Asia war has shut ~10% of revenue from Middle East energy exports and caused >60% spike in key raw material prices, with full Q1 impact yet to be felt.
Aarti Industries · risk themes across the available quarters.
Bear-case history
The West Asia war has shut ~10% of revenue from Middle East energy exports and caused >60% spike in key raw material prices, with full Q1 impact yet to be felt.
Net debt rose to ₹4,300 crore (3.6x EBITDA) due to higher raw material prices and longer export transit times; normalization may take time.
Despite some recovery in select chains, agrochemical margins remain under pressure from Chinese oversupply; broad-based recovery uncertain.
Zone 4 projects delayed by 3-4 months due to labor shortages, potentially pushing back the targeted ₹300-450 crore EBITDA contribution from these assets.