Cipla vs Lupin Q4 FY26

CI

Cipla

Q4 FY26 · Healthcare

Cipla delivered a strong Q4 FY26 with India business growing 15% YoY and North America revenue of $155M. The company achieved key milestones including generic Ventolin approval and crossing 12,500 Cr in India revenue. Management guided for FY27 EBITDA margins of 18.5-20% with sequential improvement, driven by US respiratory launches and India chronic portfolio expansion. The US business targets a $1B run-rate by FY27-end, supported by 4 respiratory approvals and a peptide launch. Key risk: geopolitical disruptions and war-related cost inflation could pressure near-term margins.

Guidance read

FY27 EBITDA margin guidance of 18.5-20%: Management expects EBITDA margins in the range of 18.5-20% for FY27, with sequential improvement and stronger H2. US business to reach $1B run-rate by FY27-end: Cipla targets a $1 billion annualized run-rate for US business by end of FY27, driven by respiratory and peptide launches. India business to deliver double-digit growth in FY27-28: Management expects strong double-digit and market-beating growth in India for FY27 and FY28. R&D spend to remain around 7% of sales: R&D investment will continue at approximately 7% of revenue, supporting complex generics and biosimilars pipeline.

Risk read

Key risks include Geopolitical disruption and war-related cost inflation — Ongoing geopolitical situation has started impacting operating expenses; if prolonged, could pressure margins.; Lanreotide supply disruption and remediation uncertainty — Lanreotide remains off market due to partner remediation; timeline for return is uncertain, with alternate supplier filing expected by Q4 FY27.; Indore facility regulatory overhang — Indore site still under regulatory scrutiny; while most filings shifted to US/Goa, any adverse outcome could delay future filings.; Execution risk in US respiratory launches — Achieving $1B run-rate depends on timely approvals and commercial execution of 4 respiratory assets; any delay could impact guidance..

Promise ledger

Of 1 tracked promise, management 0 met, 0 close, 1 missed.

LU

Lupin

Q4 FY26 · Diversified

Lupin delivered a stellar Q4 FY26 with revenue of ₹7,475 crore (+32% YoY) and EBITDA of ₹2,171 crore (+68% YoY), marking the 15th consecutive quarter of growth. The US business was a standout, reaching $1.31 billion for the full year (+40% YoY), driven by complex generics like Tolvaptan and Mirabegron. India prescription business grew 14.5% YoY, outperforming IPM. Management guided for high single-digit revenue growth and ~25% EBITDA margin in FY27, factoring in competition on key products and higher R&D spend. Key risks include potential generic competition for Mirabegron and Tolvaptan, and inflationary pressures from global trade disruptions.

Guidance read

FY27 Revenue Growth: High Single Digit: Management expects high single-digit revenue growth in rupee terms for FY27. FY27 EBITDA Margin: ~25%: EBITDA margin guided to around 25% for FY27, down from 29.7% in FY26, factoring in competition and higher R&D. R&D Spend: ~8% of Sales in FY27: R&D expenditure expected to be around 8% of sales for the next fiscal year. US Business: Sustain >$1B in FY27: US revenue expected to remain above $1 billion in FY27 despite competition, supported by new launches.

Risk read

Key risks include Mirabegron Competition — A third player has settled and may enter the market, potentially pressuring Lupin's market share and margins.; Tolvaptan Patent Expiry — Patent expiry in September 2026 could bring generic competition, impacting US revenue.; Inflationary Pressures — Rising freight and raw material costs due to geopolitical tensions could impact margins, though management has factored this into guidance.; Dapagliflozin 505(b)(2) Launch Delay — Challenges in achieving product PK for the Dapagliflozin 505(b)(2) could delay launch beyond FY27..

Promise ledger

Of 2 tracked promises, management 0 met, 0 close, 2 missed.