Central Bank of vs Niva Bupa Health Q4 FY26

CE

Central Bank of

Q4 FY26 · Financial Services

Central Bank of India reported a mixed Q4 FY26. Total business grew 15.6% to ₹8.12 lakh crore, with advances up 18.76% and CASA at 47.3%. Net profit fell to ₹724 crore (down 46% YoY) due to a one-time DTA impact of ₹632 crore from tax regime transition. Excluding this, adjusted PAT was ~₹925 crore. NIM improved 30bps QoQ to 3.07%, aided by an income tax refund. Asset quality improved: GNPA down 51bps YoY to 2.67%, slippage ratio improved to 1.16%. Management guided for 14-16% credit growth and NIM above 3% in FY27. Key risk: elevated slippages in Q4 due to audit-driven technical downgrades in MSME/agriculture.

Guidance read

Credit growth of 14-16% in FY27: Management expects advances to grow 14-16% in FY27, supported by strong capital adequacy (CRAR 17.91%) and outreach programs. Deposit growth of 10-12% in FY27: Deposits are guided to grow 10-12% in FY27, with continued focus on CASA mobilization. NIM to remain above 3% in FY27: Net interest margin is expected to stay above 3% in FY27, supported by strong CASA base and RAM focus. Slippage ratio to be less than 1% in FY27: Management targets slippage ratio below 1% in FY27, down from 1.16% in FY26.

Risk read

Key risks include Elevated Q4 slippages due to audit-driven downgrades — Q4 slippages rose to ₹1,310 crore vs ~₹800 crore average, attributed to technical downgrades in MSME and agriculture during audits.; ECL implementation impact on profitability — Transition to ECL norms from April 2027 may require additional provisions of ₹600-650 crore annually, though management expects to offset via tax savings.; NIM pressure from external benchmark-linked advances — 61% of advances are linked to external benchmarks, causing yield compression; deposit repricing lag may pressure margins.; Lumpy airline account recovery uncertainty — Recovery from a large airline NPA is ongoing; only ₹515 crore guarantee received so far, with auction process underway..

Promise ledger

Scorecard data is being built as historical quarters are processed.

Niva Bupa delivered a strong Q4 FY26 with GWP growth of 27.4% to ₹9,433 crore, driven by retail health growth of 35% and market share expansion to 10.4% in Q4. PAT surged 80% to ₹366 crore, with combined ratio improving 160 bps to 101.4% on operating leverage. Management guided for sustained retail industry growth of 17-19% CAGR and expects combined ratio to reach ~99% by FY29, with expense ratio savings offsetting modest loss ratio uptick. Key risks include potential commission cap regulation and competitive pressure from GST-driven volume growth normalization.

Guidance read

Combined ratio target of ~99% by FY29: Management expects combined ratio to improve to ~99% by FY29, driven by expense ratio savings of 200-250 bps. Retail health industry growth of 17-19% CAGR over 5 years: Management reiterated view that retail health industry will grow at 17-19% CAGR over a 5-year horizon. Loss ratio may inch up by ~150 bps: Management guided that loss ratio may increase by about 150 bps over time, offset by expense ratio improvements.

Risk read

Key risks include Potential commission cap regulation — Regulatory changes could cap commission rates, impacting distribution costs and growth. Management awaits clarity but believes single expense limit is preferable.; Normalization of GST-driven growth — Industry growth may moderate as the GST tailwind fades. Management expects stabilization at 17-19% CAGR, but near-term volatility is possible.; Group health loss ratio volatility — Group health loss ratio was ~60.5% for FY26, and IFRS loss components on onerous contracts could signal underwriting risk..

Promise ledger

Scorecard data is being built as historical quarters are processed.