Bharat Petroleum Corporation vs Reliance Q1 FY26

BP

Bharat Petroleum Corporation

Q1 FY26 · Diversified

BPCL reported Q1 FY26 standalone PAT of INR 6,124 crore and consolidated PAT of INR 6,839 crore, with revenue from operations at INR 1,229,578 crore. Refinery GRM fell sharply to $4.88/bbl from $7.86/bbl YoY, driven by lower Russian crude discounts (~$1.5/bbl) and inventory buildup. Marketing margins remained strong due to stable retail fuel prices amid lower crude, while LPG under-recovery averaged INR 150/cylinder. The government announced INR 30,000 crore LPG compensation, with BPCL expecting INR 7,500-8,000 crore. Management guided FY26 capex of INR 20,000 crore, rising to INR 35,000 crore by FY28. Key risk: potential auto fuel price cuts if crude stays below $70/bbl, compressing marketing margins.

Guidance read

FY26 capex guidance of INR 20,000 crore: Management reiterated capex of INR 20,000 crore for FY26, with INR 2,382 crore spent in Q1. Retail outlet network target of 25,000 by FY26 end: BPCL aims to expand its retail outlet network to 25,000 by the end of the current financial year. FY27 capex expected at INR 22,000-25,000 crore: Management guided FY27 capex in the range of INR 22,000-25,000 crore based on current approved projects. Russian crude share to remain 30-35%: Management expects Russian crude procurement to stay around 30-35% as long as no new sanctions are imposed.

Risk read

Key risks include Potential auto fuel price cuts — If crude prices remain below $70/bbl, there is risk of government-mandated retail price cuts, compressing marketing margins.; Mozambique project delays — The Mozambique LNG project continues to face delays; management expects positive news this quarter but no firm timeline.; Competition in diesel segment — Private players are offering discounts in the direct diesel segment, impacting BPCL's market share (29.59% in Q1).; LPG compensation uncertainty — Details of the INR 30,000 crore LPG compensation (tranche period, accounting treatment) are still awaited from the ministry..

Promise ledger

Of 2 tracked promises, management 0 met, 0 close, 2 missed.

RE

Reliance

Q1 FY26 · Conglomerate

Reliance Industries reported a strong Q1 FY26 with consolidated EBITDA of INR 58,000 crore, up 36% YoY, driven by robust performance across digital services (Jio EBITDA +24% YoY), retail (EBITDA +13% YoY), and O2C (EBITDA +10.8% YoY). Jio added 9.9 million subscribers and crossed 210 million 5G users, while retail saw 11% revenue growth despite a seasonally weak quarter. The company highlighted its proprietary UBR technology for home broadband, targeting 100 million connected premises, and provided a detailed update on its new energy gigafactories, with module manufacturing already operational and cell production expected in the next quarter. Management reiterated confidence in doubling the company's value by the end of the golden decade. Key risks include potential sanctions on Russian crude impacting feedstock costs and a slowdown in consumer electronics demand due to early monsoons.

Guidance read

Double value by end of golden decade: Management reiterated confidence in doubling the company's value by the end of the golden decade, as stated by the Chairman in 2022 and 2024 AGM. New energy ecosystem operational in 4-6 quarters: The entire new energy ecosystem, including manufacturing and generation, will be operationalized on a full-scale basis in the next four to six quarters. Retail EBITDA doubling every 3-4 years: Chairman's vision of doubling retail business every three to four years remains on track, with acceleration expected in coming quarters. 55 compressed biogas plants by end of year: Target to achieve 55 compressed biogas plants by the end of this calendar year, with construction in full swing.

Risk read

Key risks include European sanctions on Russian crude — New European sanctions package may make Russian oil cheaper, but management is evaluating the text and impact on feedstock costs and export destinations.; Consumer electronics demand slowdown — Early onset of monsoon rains impacted AC sales and consumer electronics revenue growth, which was lower than expected.; Natural decline in KG-D6 gas production — Upstream production saw a natural decline, partially offset by planned shutdowns; management expects incremental production only by second half of 2028.; Retail streamlining costs still impacting margins — Costs from store closures in Q3 and Q4 of last year continued to impact Q1 margins, though largely behind now..

Promise ledger

Of 1 tracked promise, management 0 met, 0 close, 1 missed.