Bharat Petroleum Corporation vs Maruti Q4 FY24

BPCL reported Q4 FY24 revenue of INR 132,085 crore and PAT of INR 4,224 crore, contributing to a record full-year net profit of INR 26,674 crore. Refinery throughput hit an all-time high of 39.33 MMT, with GRM of $12.48/bbl (premium to Singapore) driven by Russian crude sourcing (39% of imports) and high diesel yield. Marketing sales grew 2.09% QoQ, with retail market share gains in petrol (29.6%) and diesel (29.8%). Management guided for INR 1.7 lakh crore capex over five years, including Bina refinery expansion to 45 MMT by FY29, 4,000 new retail outlets, and 10 GW renewable capacity by 2040. Risks include moderation of Russian crude discounts (now $3-6/bbl vs $8-10 last year) and potential volatility in product cracks.

Guidance read

Refining capacity expansion to 45 MMT by FY29: Brownfield expansion of Bina Refinery and debottlenecking of existing refineries to increase capacity from current levels to 45 MMT per annum by FY 2029. Capex of INR 1.7 lakh crore over five years (FY24-29): Planned investments include INR 75,000 crore for refineries/petchem, INR 20,000 crore for marketing, INR 25,000 crore for gas, INR 10,000 crore for green energy, and INR 32,000 crore for upstream. FY25 capex target of INR 15,000-16,000 crore: Breakdown: INR 4,200 crore for refinery/petchem, INR 7,000 crore for marketing (including CGD), and INR 2,000-2,500 crore for BPRL equity infusion. Add 4,000 new retail outlets by FY29: Plan to expand network from 22,000 to 26,000 outlets; FY25 target is 1,300 new outlets.

Risk read

Key risks include Moderation of Russian crude discounts — Discounts on Russian crude have narrowed from $8-10/bbl last year to $3-6/bbl currently, potentially compressing GRM premiums.; Volatility in product cracks — International product cracks have fallen significantly in Q4, and management noted that further moderation could impact refining margins.; Geopolitical and sanctions risk on Russian crude supply — Ongoing sanctions and payment issues cause intermittent delays in Russian crude deliveries; supply continuity is uncertain.; Brazil impairment and legal risk — INR 1,798 crore impairment on BMC-30 block in Brazil due to adverse arbitration; appeal filed but outcome uncertain..

Promise ledger

Of 2 tracked promises, management 0 met, 0 close, 2 missed.

Maruti Suzuki reported a strong Q4 FY24 with net sales of INR 36,698 crore (+19.1% YoY) and net profit of INR 3,878 crore (+47.8% YoY), driven by record volumes of 584,031 vehicles (+13.4% YoY) and cost improvements. Operating margin expanded 90 bps sequentially to 10.8%, aided by lower discounts and operating leverage, partially offset by one-offs (~60 bps) and higher steel costs. CNG penetration dipped to 26.9% due to component shortages, now resolved, with management targeting 600,000 CNG units in FY25. Exports grew 21.7% YoY to 78,740 units. The company reiterated its Maruti 3.0 plan to double capacity to 4 million units by 2031, with Kharkhoda plant on track for 2025. Key risk: sustained weakness in first-time buyer demand and small car segment could pressure market share recovery.

Guidance read

CNG sales target of 600,000 units in FY25: Management expects CNG volumes to grow from ~480,000 in FY24 to 600,000 in FY25, aided by resolved component supply and new capacity. Export volume target of ~300,000 units in FY25: Exports are expected to increase from 283,000 in FY24 to about 300,000 in FY25, with diversified markets. Kharkhoda plant operational in 2025: First plant at Kharkhoda with 250,000 units annual capacity is on track to be operational in 2025. Gujarat greenfield facility with 1M units capacity: MOU signed for a new plant in Gujarat with potential 1 million units capacity and INR 35,000 crore investment, subject to land and board approval.

Risk read

Key risks include First-time buyer demand remains weak — First-time buyer share is ~40-43% and not showing recovery; small car segment continues to shrink, which could limit market share gains.; Commodity cost headwinds (steel, copper, aluminum) — Steel prices rose ~2% sequentially in Q4; copper and aluminum are expected to increase, impacting margins. Management flagged these as concerns.; SUV mix shift may pressure CO2 compliance — SUV share continues to rise, increasing fleet CO2 emissions. Future CAFE norms could require more aggressive green technology adoption, raising costs.; Export profitability volatility — Export margins are variable due to forex fluctuations and geopolitical risks; past markets like Algeria and Sri Lanka have seen sudden drops..

Promise ledger

Scorecard data is being built as historical quarters are processed.