Bharat Petroleum Corporation vs Maruti Q3 FY25

BPCL reported Q3 FY25 revenue of INR 127,521 crore and PAT of INR 4,649 crore, with refinery throughput at 107% of nameplate capacity despite planned shutdowns. GRM stood at $5.6/bbl, impacted by lower Russian crude processing (31% vs 34-35% earlier) and shutdowns. Marketing volumes grew 4% YoY, but ATF volumes declined due to customer loss. Management highlighted risks from potential reduction in Russian crude discounts and LPG under-recovery of INR 7,228 crore, though they expect government support. Capex guidance for FY26 is ~INR 19,000 crore, with Bina petchem project on track for May 2027 completion. Renewable energy targets include 2 GW by FY26 and 10 GW by 2030. Key risk: sustained decline in Russian crude availability could compress GRMs.

Guidance read

Bina petrochemical project completion by May 2027: The integrated refinery and petrochemical expansion at Bina, with a total capex of INR 49,000 crore, is on schedule for completion by May 2027. Capex guidance for FY26 at ~INR 19,000 crore: Indicative capex for FY26 is around INR 19,000 crore, with major allocations to CGD expansion and Bina project. Renewable energy target of 2 GW by FY26 and 10 GW by 2030: BPCL aims to achieve 2 GW of renewable capacity by FY26 and 10 GW by 2030, with a capex of INR 10,000 crore over the next two years. CGD business to turn EBITDA positive from FY26: Management expects the CGD business to generate positive EBITDA from FY26 onwards, driven by volume growth and cost pass-through.

Risk read

Key risks include Reduction in Russian crude availability — Russian crude processing may drop from 31% to ~20% in March due to sanctions, potentially reducing GRM benefits from discounts.; LPG under-recovery not compensated — BPCL has a net negative buffer of INR 7,228 crore from LPG under-recovery; if government does not compensate, earnings could be impacted.; ATF volume decline due to customer loss — ATF volumes declined significantly after losing a customer in a tender; recovery depends on winning new customers.; Capex execution and debt levels — Large capex plans (INR 1.7 lakh crore) could push debt/equity to 1.1x; any delays or cost overruns may strain balance sheet..

Promise ledger

Of 2 tracked promises, management 0 met, 0 close, 2 missed.

Maruti Suzuki reported Q3 FY25 net sales of INR 36,800 crore (+15.5% YoY) and PAT of INR 3,525 crore (+12.6% YoY), driven by festive demand and record exports of 99,020 units (+38% YoY). Domestic sales grew 8.7% YoY to 466,993 units, with rural retail up 15% vs urban 2.5%. The company unveiled the e VITARA EV with 500+ km range, targeting exports to 100 countries and aiming to be India's largest EV manufacturer within the first year. Margins faced headwinds from higher sales promotion (+20bps QoQ), ad spends (+40bps), and adverse forex (-20bps), partially offset by favorable commodities (+40bps) and operating leverage (+30bps). Management expects Q4 retail growth of ~3.5% and noted subdued demand in entry-level segments. Risk: sustained weakness in small cars and competitive intensity from capacity expansions.

Guidance read

Q4 FY25 retail growth ~3.5%: Management expects retail sales growth in Q4 to follow the 9-month trend of ~3.5%. Price hike of ~30 bps on net sales from Feb 2025: Small price increase announced to cover inflationary pressures. Kharkhoda plant to start operations in Q4 FY25: The upcoming greenfield plant at Kharkhoda is expected to begin operations within Q4 FY25. e VITARA production to begin soon; aspire to be largest EV manufacturer in India within first year: Production of the e VITARA EV will start soon, with ambition to become India's largest EV maker within the first year of production.

Risk read

Key risks include Subdued demand in entry-level segments — Entry hatchbacks saw degrowth, mid-hatch flat, while premium hatch grew. Weakness in lower segments remains a challenge.; EV profitability unlikely to match ICE in near term — Management acknowledged that EV profitability per vehicle will not match ICE for a long time due to higher costs and government support needed.; Competitive intensity from capacity expansions — Multiple OEMs are expanding capacity, which could increase competitive intensity and pressure margins.; CAFE 3 norms uncertainty — CAFE 3 norms are yet to be announced; management did not provide specific EV penetration targets, relying on technology mix agility..

Promise ledger

Of 3 tracked promises, management 0 met, 0 close, 3 missed.